Welcome to the 2022 NFL season! It's been far too long.

The opening game looks awesome on paper and will probably deliver as an entertainment product. As for investment potential, well, I generally believe in wading into a season slowly, with so much unknown and with this league changing so drastically from year to year.

I guess that's a long-winded way of saying caveat emptor. Buyer beware.

In general, over the years I have tended to like a lot of Thursday Night plays and have fared well capping them, but there is a crapshoot element to a game like Bills at Rams, especially given how Sean McVay has long approached his preseasons, and how quickly that seems to be catching on among his peers. There are a few things I would certainly consider leaning into on Thursday night, however, as I generally favor the Rams in this spot at home, especially with much of the Bills emerging front seven pass rushing options still coming into their own, and with top corner Tre'Davious White out for Buffalo.

• More TNF picks: Model | BUF expert | LAR expert | Props | DFS

Options abound for the Rams in the passing game. Cooper Kupp can be unguardable in big spots and I feel much better about Matthew Stafford's throwing arm now than I did in early August as he was working through some things. The Super Bowl champs getting points in this spot is something I have to lean into. Here's what I would consider playing Thursday night:

Spread: Rams +2.5

Sure we'd love a field goal here, but this game feels like more of a pick 'em to me at this point in the season, and as I said, take the points at home in what will be a very emotional spot for the Rams. While their reconfigured offensive line gives me a little pause, they have a book on Von Miller from his time there, and I believe McVay's game plan will account for him as much as possible.  

Team total: Rams Over 26 (+104)

I don't mind sliding this up a little from Over 23. The Bills' second half defense can be a problem as evidenced in the playoffs, and I could see fatigue being an issue early in the season. While one could easily go ahead and bet the Over on the game (52.5), I kinda like the Rams' side of things with so much uncertainty about the scripts and play-calling on the Bills side with offensive guru Brian Daboll now running the Giants. McVay returns a very familiar cast at the skill spots with some interesting additions. The Rams averaged 27 points per game a year ago in the first season of the McVay-Stafford pairing.  

Winning margin: Rams 1-6 points (+310)

I like the value here more than the money line (+115). I don't see this being a blowout; the Bills always seem to be capable of a second-half run, and their ability to score points quickly makes me favor this bet. Could the Rams win by a touchdown or more? Sure, "Any Given Thursday" and all. But a small wager here could very well be worth the return.  

Total tackles + assists: Aaron Donald Over 3.5 (-145)

Donald has registered four or more combined tackles in 10 straight regular-season games and reached that mark 13 times in the regular season a year ago. With Daboll gone, the Bills may be a little more inclined to run the ball and strive for more ball control, which allows for more tackling opportunities around the line of scrimmage. Donald is going to be a man on fire. The last time we saw him he was swinging around multiple Bengals helmets during a scrimmage brawl. He lives for the big stage, and this Bills O-line may be regressing from what we came to expect from that group a year ago.  

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