Bills vs. Patriots NFL Week 7 odds, trends, props: New England biggest home underdog since Tom Brady's first career start

The New England Patriots have been outscored by 73 points during their three-game losing streak with coach Bill Belichick remaining stuck on 299 regular-season career victories. Things may not get much better Sunday for the future Hall of Fame coach and embattled quarterback Mac Jones against the Buffalo Bills as the Patriots are 9-point underdogs, the biggest home number against them since Tom Brady's first NFL start 22 years ago.

We surely don't have to remind our readers that Brady was a sixth-round pick out of Michigan in 2000 but never saw the field as a rookie and wasn't expected to the next year, either, as the Pats had a good quarterback in Drew Bledsoe. Alas, he got hurt in Week 2 of the 2001 season against the Jets, thanks to the infamous Mo Lewis hit that changed the course of the entire NFL because Brady then became the starter. His first outing was in Week 3 at home vs. Indianapolis and the Patriots were +12. They destroyed the Peyton Manning-led Colts 44-13, and the Brady legend was born.

Belichick is looking to join Don Shula (328) and George Halas (318) as the only NFL coaches with 300 regular-season wins. Belichick's chances of catching Shula seem to diminish by the week with even former Patriots calling on Belichick to retire after this season. The team's 1-5 start is the worst of his career. New England's -80 point differential is only better than the fellow 1-5 Giants (-96).

Sunday legitimately could be a make-or-break game for Jones. The former first-round pick has zero total touchdowns and seven turnovers in the past three games. He is the first player with zero TDs and seven turnovers in a span of three team games since Brian Hoyer in 2014 with Cleveland. Now Jones faces Buffalo's  No. 4 scoring defense, and the unit is tied for second with 13 takeaways and second in interception percentage.

New England is minus-8 in turnover differential, tied for the worst in the league. Jones is set at over/under 195.5 passing yards and is -145 to throw a pick. The Patriots are 1-13 straight up in their past 14 as underdogs. That win was last October at +2.5 in Cleveland.

Jones didn't play in that game due to injury with Bailey Zappe starting in his place. Jones is 0-13 SU and ATS in his past 13 starts as an underdog including the playoffs, the longest ATS QB skid as an underdog since 1970. New England's current six-game ATS home losing streak is also the NFL's longest.

Buffalo is 6-1 vs. the Patriots this decade including the playoffs – winning and covering three straight – after going 4-34 in the series from 2001-19.

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