Bills vs. Chiefs NFL odds, trends: Most-wagered game by far in Week 6, Patrick Mahomes home underdog for first time

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has put up some crazy statistics in his Hall of Fame-caliber career with Kansas City, but one of the craziest has to be that he has never been a home underdog with the Chiefs. Even Tom Brady was a home dog occasionally with the Patriots. That Mahomes trend will end Sunday as KC is +2.5 at Caesars Sportsbook against the Super Bowl-favored Buffalo Bills in a rematch of last year's epic Divisional Round playoff game. Bills-Chiefs is by far taking the heaviest action of any Week 6 game.

As of this writing, the Chiefs are taking 61.7% of the money at Caesars, but the Bills 52.8% of the tickets. Yet at BetMGM, KC is getting 79% of the tickets and 68% of the money. That shows you how different books can be and why their lines may slightly vary. On the total of 54, the Over is being completely crushed at nearly 90% on both tickets and handle at BetMGM. In NFL games with totals of 50 or more points this season, the Under is 7-3.

Mahomes had gone 41 consecutive home games without being an underdog, the longest streak of any quarterback being a home favorite to begin a career. Note that Mahomes has never been a home dog, but Kansas City has been one three times in his tenure. He just didn't play in any of the games:

• Jan. 3, 2021 vs. Chargers: Kansas City was +6.5 but was locked into its playoff seeding and rested most starters in a 38-21 loss.
• Nov. 3, 2019 vs. Vikings: Mahomes was out injured and Matt Moore started under center in a 26-23 win.
• Oct. 27, 2019 vs. Packers: Mahomes was out injured and Moore started in a 31-24 loss.

Mahomes is 7-0-1 against the spread in his career as an underdog. He was a 2-point dog Week 4 at Tampa Bay and the Chiefs won 41-31. The push was a very memorable Monday night game in 2018 against the Rams in Los Angeles (moved from Mexico City) when Kansas City was +3 and lost 54-51.

In that Divisional Round playoff game won by the Chiefs 42-36 in OT, easily one of the best postseason games ever, K.C. was -2.5. The game featured the most points scored (25) in the final two minutes of regulation in playoff history, and it was the only game in NFL history (regular season or playoffs) in which both quarterbacks had at least 300 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, 50 rushing yards and zero interceptions.

Mahomes was 33-for-44 for 378 yards and three scores while rushing for 69 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo's Josh Allen was 27-for-37 for 329 yards and four scores and rushed for 68 yards.

Allen is currently the +200 favorite at Caesars to win his first regular-season MVP Award, with Mahomes second at +450. The Bills are +350 favorites to win the Super Bowl and Chiefs +650 second favorites. It will be interesting to see any movement on those odds if Kansas City wins and gains a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker.

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