Bills 2023 NFL playoff odds: Buffalo's postseason chances now below 20 percent per proven model, sportsbooks following crushing Eagles loss

Every year in the NFL, it seems there are at least a couple of preseason Super Bowl favorites that fall flat on their faces and miss the playoffs entirely. The Buffalo Bills might be one of those teams in 2023 after they suffered an absolutely devastating 37-34 loss in Philadelphia on Sunday in a game the Bills largely dominated and frankly should have won. They are now 6-6 and 10th in the AFC standings – even behind Denver, which was at one point 1-5.

The SportsLine Projection Model only gives Buffalo an 18.7% shot of reaching the playoffs for the fifth straight season. DraftKings isn't that optimistic as it prices the Bills at +500, which equates to a 16.7% chance. Buffalo not making the postseason is -750. The Bills' updated season win total is 8.5 after opening at 10.5.

Josh Allen is an absolutely fantastic player and was great Sunday with 33 passing yards and two scores through the air. He added 81 yards and two more touchdowns on the ground. He became the only QB in NFL history to record four career games with at least 300 yards through the air and at least 75 on the ground, passing Cam Newton (three) and Michael Vick (three).

The offense has averaged 34.5 points in two games since coach Sean McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, but it was McDermott's defense that was to blame Sunday. McDermott is starting to come under a bit of fire in Buffalo despite all the recent success -- especially as the regular-season wins have been paired with playoff failures. Could he move on this offseason? The Carolina Panthers head coaching job is open, and McDermott was the defensive coordinator there from 2011-16. I'd be willing to bet Panthers owner David Tepper at least gauges McDermott's interest.

McDermott is being questioned by the Buffalo fan base for having Allen kneel down and run out the clock when the Bills got the ball at the 25-yard line with 20 seconds left in the fourth quarter and the game tied Sunday. The Bills had an opportunity to get into range for a game-winning field goal, but McDermott said he worried about Allen taking a sack, and didn't know if 20 seconds would be enough time. The Bills were down to one timeout at the end of the fourth quarter.

"Hindsight's always 20/20. Believe me, it's gone through my mind more than once," McDermott said.

Sunday continues some bad fortune for Allen. The Bills are 2-6 in one-score games in 2023, tied with New England for the worst record in eight or more one-score games and tied for the second-worst record in one-score games overall. 

Buffalo tends to have a lot of heartbreaking losses under Allen. As noted by CBS Sports research:

• 2019 Wild Card: Blew 16-0 lead in OT loss to Texans
• 2020 Week 10: Lost at Cardinals on a Kyler Murray Hail-Mary
• 2021 Week 6: Three-point loss at Titans after Allen stuffed on 4th-and-goal
• 2021 Week 14: OT loss to Buccaneers after 17-point fourth-quarter comeback by Buffalo
• 2021 Div: OT loss to Chiefs after game-tying drive with 13 seconds left
• 2022 Week 10: OT loss to Vikings after allowing defensive TD in final minute
• 2023 Week 1: OT loss to Jets on walk-off punt return TD
• 2023 Week 7: Loss to New England on Mac Jones passing TD with 12 seconds left
• 2023 Week 10: Broncos walk-off FG after 12 men on field penalty
• 2023 Week 12: OT loss to Eagles after 59-yd game-tying FG

Despite their record, the Bills have a plus-101-point differential, the 268th team to be plus-100 or better through 12 games. But they are the second team out of that group to not have a winning record, joining the 1950 Eagles, who were also 6-6.

The SportsLine Projection Model says Buffalo has the NFL's toughest remaining schedule as well. They're off this week, then at the Chiefs, vs. the Cowboys, at the Chargers, vs. the Patriots and at the Dolphins. The Patriots are lousy, but the rest are title contenders.

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