Beyond the Boxscore: Fantasy Football 2023 Week 5 Lineup Advice from proven expert

Each week, we're going to go beyond the boxscore and dive into the most interesting situations from around the NFL and discuss how they might shape the Fantasy landscape for the upcoming week. My hope is that you leave this article feeling at least a little bit more confident in the reasoning behind your lineup decisions.

I'm going to give advice in this space and hope to be right more than wrong, but most importantly, I hope that you leave these columns with a clearer and fuller understanding of what goes into my rankings here on SportsLine. I'm excited to peel back the curtain a bit and invite you to start thinking about your lineup decisions in a less linear way. We're trying to move away from this player ranks two spots higher than this player, so he's the one to start – lineup decisions are almost always more dynamic than that!

I do my best to create space to answer lineup advice questions on Twitter throughout the week, you might catch me there. My goal is to be more present and available to help SportsLine members with their Fantasy lineup decisions this season! Below, you'll find the situations that stood out the most to me when making important lineup decisions.

If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros. Gibbs had the fourth-most accurate rankings in Week 4 and ranks seventh out of nearly 200 experts in terms of rankings accuracy on the year.

Now, Gibbs has projected every Fantasy-relevant player's stats and shared his findings for Week 5 of the 2023 season. In Week 1's lineup advice column, Gibbs advised starting Puka Nacua. Leading up to Week 2, Gibbs predicted a huge week from Nico Collins, and he also advised trusting Nacua and Kyren Williams even in a matchup against the 49ers. In Week 3, Gibbs highlighted Tank Dell before his 5-145-1 explosion against the Jaguars. And in Week 4, Gibbs predicted Khalil Herbert getting his season on track due to the splits between Herbert and Roschon Johnson when the Bears had previously been in neutral game scripts.

One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 5: Joe Burrow. The Bengals have been arguably the biggest disappointment in Fantasy while Burrow battles a calf injury, but Gibbs says that the Week 5 matchup couldn't be better. A soft matchup against a Cardials defense that blitzes at a league-low rate might just be exactly what Cincinnati needs to get rolling. Gibbs is also all-in on a rookie wide receiver! You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 5? And which fill-in running backs can you trust? Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly lineup advice, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

I'm trusting Joe Burrow and the Bengals against Arizona

Defenses have been blitzing Joe Burrow more in 2023 to exploit his current lack of mobility. In the past, Burrow has been one of the absolute best passers against the blitz, but that area of his game has been a clear weakness (more data on Burrow vs. the blitz) while he plays through a calf injury.

No team is blitzing less this season than the under-new-management Arizona Cardinals. It's fun to make note of newly appointed coaches who are willing to attempt to innovate with their opportunity, and just after celebrating his 30th birthday in July, Cardinals defensive coordinator Nick Rallis is dialing up one of the most unique defensive approaches in football. The league average blitz rate is 29%. Only four teams have a rate below 20%. The Cardinals blitz only 14% of the time, and that rate hasn't risen above 22% in any of their four games. Against a newly-coached and quarterbacked Commanders offense, Arizona only blitzed 8% of the time. Against a reeling Daniel Jones, the blitz rate was only 11%.

It's possible that Arizona increases the blitz rate against Burrow, but we have no precedent suggesting that the blitz rate is matchup-dependent. I think this is just who this Cardinals defense is. It's a weird defense. Arizona only uses press coverage 32% of the time, second-lowest in the NFL and down from a league average of 55%. The Cardinals use Cover-4 more than any team, their 31% rate is more than double the average (14.4%).

I'm not entirely sure what Arizona's vision is behind using by far the least-aggressive defensive scheme in football is, but that's not really important for the purposes of this conversation. What's important is that this sets up as the softest matchup that Burrow and the Bengals passing attack has faced. Last week's matchup against Tennessee's suspect secondary provided an easy test for the downfield passing game, but the Titans do have an awesome defensive line and blitz at a decent rate. The Cardinals rank 30th in pressure rate. Burrow says that he's feeling better than ever; we absolutely could see him perform better than in last week's let down.

It's worth noting that the easiest way to attack Arizona's defense has been on the ground. We could just see the Tee Higgins-less Bengals go run-heavy in this spot. I've been surprised that Cincinnati hasn't leaned more heavily on Mixon through the first month. They seem more content to lean into a shortened quick-hitting pass attack rather than trust the ground game.

I'm projecting the Bengals as if they'll continue to skew towards neutral or slightly pass-heavy in Week 5, and that results in a top-10 projection for Burrow among Fantasy quarterbacks. I'd start him ahead of Jared Goff, Brocky Purdy, Sam Howell, and Jordan Love. And I'm still considering Burrow's appeal as a contrarian DFS play.

I'm viewing Mixon (RB13 in my Week 5 rankings) as basically a must-start, and he's a decent DFS play too. I will again mention that I don't love the volume that he's been getting and lean towards using the Bengals passing game for Week 5 DFS.

Ja'Marr Chase is the obvious Bengals player that I want DFS exposure to, but Tyler Boyd is interesting as well. His target rate has gone way up without Higgins in the lineup, and he could pile up short-yardage targets against Arizona's zone-heavy coverage scheme. I have Boyd ranked as the WR35 for Week 5 and continue to push him up each time I update. The Bengals are implied for 24 points in this spot, and the offense is likely to be concentrated on three players.

Will we really see Breece Hall unleashed against the Broncos?

Breece Hall hasn't looked like his usual self. He had that huge run in Week 1, but Hall's yards after contact when adjusted to exclude gains of 20+ yards is actually 19% below the league average.

Khalil Herbert's 2023 advanced metrics prior to Week 4 didn't represent his usual self, but after a matchup with the Broncos, Herbert's season-long numbers paint him as one of the best rushers in the NFL. The Broncos are here to boost rushing efficiency.

And the matchup against Denver couldn't have come at a better time, as Jets head coach Robert Saleh says that there is no longer a pitch count for Hall. Saleh went on to mention that there are still lots of other players that they want to involve, and in listing 5-6 names, neither Dalvin Cook or Michael Carter were mentioned. Hall has been getting progressively more involved with each week, and it appears as if the training wheels will come off in Week 5.

I don't want to get carried away in our expectations for Hall in this spot, as we have yet to see his usage expanded and the game environment could be really gross. The over/under has been bet up 3.5 points since open and is still at just 43.5 with the Jets carrying an implied team total of 20.5 points.

I have Hall ranked as the RB17 after applying a usage bump to his projected role. If you need more security, I'm fine with starting Alvin Kamara or James Conner over Hall, but I do prefer him to both. I'd also start Hall over Herbert, Jahmyr Gibbs, Alexander Mattison, Rhamondre Stevenson and Dameon Pierce.

A matchup with the Chiefs could help Jordan Addison

The 58% rate came on just a 43 dropback sample, as the Vikings have been consistently losing in 2023. I think that it makes sense that Addison would see the field more when playing catch-up, though, as he's currently primarily playing in three-receiver sets. We saw his role shrink from Week 3 to Week 4, as the Vikings went run-heavy and used more two-receiver sets against the Panthers. I'm not so sure that they'll be able to run their offense in the same conservative manner against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs have strong nickel coverage, but the strength of Kansas City's secondary is against opposing WR1s. Calvin Ridley was dominated by L'Jarius Snead, turning in just 32 yards against the Chiefs in Week 2. DJ Moore pushed his yardage total up to 41 in garbage time in Week 3. Last week, Garrett Wilson turned 14 targets into 60 yards against Kansas City.

This could be a spot where Kirk Cousins focuses more on Addison. We saw Christian Kirk get loose for 11 catches and 110 yards against Kansas City in Week 2.

I'm not letting Addison's Week 4 goose egg impact his Week 5 projection. I expect him to be a big part of the game plan for an offense that could produce 40+ or even 50+ pass attempts in this spot. He's my WR23 for Week 5. I'd start Addison over Wilson, Moore, Nico Collins, Gabe Davis, DeAndre Hopkins, and Adam Thielen. He projects very similarly to Terry McLaurin and Christian Watson, whom I have ranked just ahead of him. It's uncomfortable, but I'm starting Addison over Collins in a few spots, and I'll definitely have exposure to him in DFS even though his price tag did not drop much after the goose egg.

An aside on Collins -- I imagine some of you think I'm crazy for preferring guys like Addison (expert consensus ranking of WR33) and Watson (WR27) to Collins (WR19) -- he's run extremely hot with his opportunities and is in a prime spot for regression against A.J. Terrell and the Falcons. Atlanta plays slow and may be able to move the chains and control the game on the ground against a Houston defense that has improved a lot under DeMeco Ryans but is not well equipped for how Atlanta attacks. Atlanta's opponents have averaged only 31.5 pass attempts per game (ninth fewest) and had little success pushing the ball down the field. The only receivers who have put up yardage on Atlanta have been Amon-Ra St. Brown and Christian Kirk.

Collins has been awesome. This Week 5 matchup feels like one of the worst possible when it comes to his chances of reaching the top of his range of outcomes. The path to a ceiling game from Addison feels much clearer.

Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson both look like top-24 Fantasy WRs

Watson was eased into action, but he's had a full 10 days since then and should be a full-go for Week 5. When on the field, Watson accounted for 29% of Green Bay's targets. That'll work.

You know who else accounted for 29% of the targets while Watson was on the field? Romeo Doubs was not negatively affected at all by Watson's presence.

I'm not sure why the expert consensus seems so low (WR31) on Doubs. He sits at WR18 in my Week 5 rankings, just behind the San Francisco receivers and ahead of Marquise Brown, Zay Flowers, McLaurin, Collins, Addison, and Watson.

Sorting out the fringe starter range at each position

Those were the player-specific situations that stood out to me as worth discussing in detail this week. Each week, we'll wrap up this start/sit journey by sorting out the fringe starter range of my rankings at each position.

QB 

The number of quarterbacks I consider to be viable starters each week hovered around 23 through the first three weeks. Last week that number was down to 19. In Week 5, there are only 17 quarterbacks Iwant to start, with Joshua Dobbs being the cut-off point. C.J. Stroud, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, and Jimmy Garoppolo are fine starts for those in desperate situations.

You can easily start Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Kirk Cousins, no questions asked. Beyond that, here's how I am categorizing the position this week:

Group 1: Quarterbacks with question marks but upside to push well north of 20 Fantasy points

Tier 1 -- Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields
Tier 2 -- Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Sam Howell, Jordan Love, Daniel Jones

If you're looking for upside, these are your guys.

Implied point total for each quarterback's team:

25 -- Howell
24.25 -- Purdy
23.75 -- Burrow
23 -- Love
21.5 -- Lawrence
19.5 -- Fields
19 -- Jones  

This Week 5 matchup with Buffalo presents an exciting and winnable test for Calvin Ridley. Trevor Lawrence (and Ridley's Fantasy believers) desperately need him to win in this spot. The Bills use press coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and Ridley has really struggled when pressed in 2023. The Jags hoped for Ridley to win in this specific area as their WR1, and a Week 5 London game against the hottest team in football presents a high-pressure stage for Ridley. The range of outcomes is extremely wide.

I have loved what we've seen from Lawrence. I believe very little of Jacksonville's struggles were in any way preventable by him. PFF has him graded as the second-best passer behind only Tua Tagovailoa, and if he gets more support from his surrounding environment, Lawrence could guide this offense back to form in a big way in a projected shootout against the Bills. The only quarterbacks that I'm starting ahead of Lawrence in Week 5 are the seven that I named at the top of the QB section.

I placed Jared Goff in Group 2, as I don't expect much passing volume from the Lions against Carolina. If Goff were in Group 1, he'd be the closest to pushing Lawrence for the top spot. The Lions are implied for 27 points! Detroit gets Jameson Williams back for this game, and we may see them look to lift the lid a bit in a low-pressure spot (they're 10-point favorites), so there's definitely upside for Goff. If the majority of the touchdowns happen to come through the air, he could outscore everyone from this group. He's a solid start and an intriguing DFS option if you want direct leverage off of an expectedly-popular David Montgomery, who is coming off of a 37.1-point performance and is only $6,600 on DraftKings. If the touchdowns come through the air instead of short-yardage punches from Montgomery, Goff lineups would gain massive leverage on the field.

Group 2: Quarterbacks who feel like safe bets to post a score that doesn't hurt your lineup

Tier 1 -- Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford
Tier 2 -- Joshua Dobbs

I really don't feel comfortable at the QB position this week. We've seen excellent production from C.J. Stroud and Russell Wilson, but the Week 5 game environments and matchups are gross.

I do feel reasonably comfortable with Goff, Stafford, and Dobbs in Week 5. Dobbs started using his legs more to move the chains in Week 2, and he's scored 25, 17, and 23 Fantasy points since then. Oddsmakers are giving the Cardinals more respect than at any point this season thus far, with a healthy-enough opening implied point total of 19.75 that has been bet up to 20.75. I'd start Dobbs over Stroud and Wilson in Week 5.

RB 

I feel much better about the RB position in Week 5. There are 20 running backs I actually want to start, that group ends with Alexander Mattison at home against the Chiefs and James Conner at home against the Bengals. That list will become 21 players long if we get Saquon Barkley back.

There are nine RBs who I view as must-starts for Week 5 -- Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, D'Andre Swift, and De'Von Achane. Beyond that, you can find how I'm sorting out the position below.

Group 1: There's definitely upside!

Tier 1 -- Joe Mixon, Isiah Pacheco, Raheem Mostert, Aaron Jones, Alexander Mattison
Tier 2 -- Jonathan Taylor/Zack Moss, Khalil Herbert, Breece Hall

Group 2: Safe starters if you don't have a higher-upside option that you prefer

Tier 1 -- James Cook, David Montgomery
Tier 2 -- Alvin Kamara, James Conner

Group 3: Plays that make sense in theory, but I'm not excited by their projection

Tier 1 -- Brian Robinson
Tier 2 -- Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Jahmyr Gibbs
Tier 3 -- Gus Edwards, Jaylen Warren, Jaleel McLaughlin, Chuba Hubbard, Tyjae Spears, Jerick McKinnon, Latavius Murray

Group 4: We're betting on volume. There's not much upside here.

Tier 1 -- Miles Sanders, Dameon Pierce
Tier 2 -- Tyler Allgeier, Samaje Perine, AJ Dillon, Kenneth Gainwell

WR 

The Week 5 must-start group of wide receivers is a bit smaller, ending with DeVonta Smith and Michael Pittman as the WR12 and WR13. Here's who comes next:

Group 1: I think we can trust these players

Tier 1 -- Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Romeo Doubs, Marquise Brown, Terry McLaurin
Tier 2 -- Nico Collins, Zay Flowers
Tier 3 -- Adam Thielen, Jakobi Meyers, Jahan Dotson, DeAndre Hopkins, Tank Dell, Tyler Boyd

Group 2: Mystery Box

Tier 1 -- Calvin Ridley
Tier 2 -- Christian Watson, Jordan Addison, Gabe Davis, Garrett Wilson, DJ Moore  

Group 3: Desperation Plays

Tier 1 -- Drake London, Jerry Jeudy, George Pickens
Tier 2 --Rashee Rice, Michael Wilson, Josh Downs, Skyy Moore, Curtis Samuel, Brandin Cooks, Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton
Tier 3 -- DeVante Parker, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, DJ Chark, K.J. Osborn, Calvin Austin, Josh Reynolds, Jonathan Mingo, Marvin Mims, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jalin Hyatt, Terrace Marshall, Jameson Williams

Group 3: I'd really rather avoid them

Tier 1 -- Tutu Atwell (He'd be a Group 1, Tier 3 player if Cooper Kupp doesn't play. If Kupp plays, I'd prefer to avoid Atwell until we see how much his role will shrink).
Tier 2 -- Michael Thomas, Courtland Sutton, Rashid Shaheed
Tier 3 -- Robert Woods, Michael Gallup, Kendrick Bourne, Van Jefferson, Darnell Mooney, Allen Lazard, Kadarius Toney, Allen Robinson

TE 

Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, and Mark Andrews are the tight ends I consider must-starts for Week 5.

Group 1 -- Upside shots

Tier 1 -- Sam LaPorta, Evan Engram
Tier 2 -- Darren Waller, George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, Kyle Pitts, Cole Kmet

Group 2 -- I'm just looking for eight points, honestly

Placement in Group 2 doesn't indicate that I prefer a Group 1 TE. You can find my full Week 5 rankings here for help navigating specific positional start-sit decisions.

Tier 1 -- Dallas Goedert, Tyler Higbee, Logan Thomas, Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz
Tier 2 -- Jonnu Smith, Dalton Schultz, Hayden Hurst, Kylen Granson

Group 3 -- You can find a better option, right?

Tier 1 -- Juwan Johnson, Chigoziem Okonkwo
Tier 2 -- Dawson Knox, Tyler Conklin
Tier 3 -- Adam Trautman, Mike Geisicki, Darnell Washington

Good luck with your lineup decisions this week! Be sure to hit me up on Twitter during one of the Q&A's, when I set aside time for lineup questions!

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