Bet on Mitchell Trubisky? Bears' starting quarterback has been profitable against the spread

In a bit of an upset, the Chicago Bears reportedly have decided that Mitchell Trubisky will be their Week 1 starter in Detroit over trade acquisition Nick Foles. In one respect, it's not a surprise as Trubisky clearly knows the offense/teammates better than Foles because there were no offseason activities due to the coronavirus, but Foles also has around $21 million guaranteed on his contract, cost Chicago a fourth-round pick in this year's draft and the team didn't pick up Trubisky's fifth-year option on his rookie contract.

ESPN's Adam Schefter was the first to report this news, which frankly goes against nearly every beat writer who seemed to think Foles was going to win the job. Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio reported that coaching staff believed Trubisky "stepped up and improved the way the team wanted." Trubisky ranked 32nd in yards gained per pass attempt in 2019 at just 6.1 ypa. To be fair, some of that was the conservative offensive play-calling by Coach Matt Nagy. 

In one way, this makes a lot of sense. Had Chicago not opened the season without the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft under center, his confidence likely is gone. Meanwhile, Foles has proven one of the best "relief pitchers" in modern NFL history. Of course, he led the Eagles to their first Super Bowl title in the 2017 season in relief of an injured Carson Wentz and won SB MVP honors. 

The jobs of Nagy and GM Ryan Pace – who traded up one spot in the 2017 draft to take Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson (who both got monster extensions recently) – are riding on this decision.

While Trubisky unquestionably has disappointed overall, he is a solid 21-16-4 against the spread as a starter (23-18 straight up) in the regular season. Chicago is a 1.5-point underdog for Week 1 in Detroit and has lost both season openers under Trubisky (1-1 ATS). Those were both vs. Green Bay. Against the Lions, Trubisky is 3-2 SU and ATS. 

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