Bears vs. Packers NFL Week 18 playoff scenarios, odds: Justin Fields could keep Green Bay from postseason in potential final game as Chicago's quarterback

Week 18 is always a fun time to speculate what certain NFL teams will look like next season. For example, will Bill Belichick still be New England's coach next September? Arguably the biggest player-related question surrounds the Chicago Bears and Justin Fields, who just three years ago was considered the future of the franchise under center. Fields and the Bears can most likely keep the rival Packers (-3 on SportsLine consensus) from claiming an NFC wild card spot with an upset victory in Green Bay on Sunday, and SportsLine offers odds on Fields' future. Click here for model picks. 

The Packers are familiar with win-and-get-in Week 18 home games. They were stunned at home by Detroit in the regular season finale last season, which gave the final wild card spot to Seattle instead of Green Bay and also ended Aaron Rodgers' tenure at Lambeau Field. Jordan Love has had a fine season in his first year starting in place of Rodgers and would get his club a wild card spot with a win.

The Packers could also get in with a tie but would need a lot of help to do so. There hasn't been a tie in the NFL this season. There is still a chance of making the playoffs with a loss, but it's a massive longshot. If the Packers lose and finish third in the NFC North, they would host Rodgers and Jets next regular season.

Seed-wise, both the No. 6 and 7 spots are in play for Green Bay with three possible destinations awaiting on Wild Card Weekend should the Packers make it: Detroit, Dallas or Philadelphia. The Packerss currently sit seventh and would face the No. 2, which will likely be the NFC East champion Cowboys. But the No. 6 Rams are resting all their starters Sunday, so they could lose and slip to seventh.

Packers playoff scenarios (via team website):

To earn the No. 6 seed and travel to No. 3 Detroit:

Packers win, Rams lose, Cowboys or Eagles win

OR

Packers win, Rams lose, Cowboys lose, Eagles lose, Lions

To earn the No. 6 seed and travel to No. 3 Dallas:

Packers win, Rams lose, Cowboys lose, Eagles lose, Lions win

To earn the No. 7 seed and travel to No. 2 Dallas:

Packers win, Rams win, Cowboys win

To earn the No. 7 seed and travel to No. 2 Philadelphia:

Packers win, Rams win, Cowboys lose, Eagles win

To earn the No. 7 seed and travel to No. 2 Detroit:

Packers win, Rams win, Cowboys lose, Eagles lose, Lions win

To earn the No. 7 seed despite loss to Chicago:

Vikings lose, Seahawks lose, and Buccaneers or Saints lose

Current Bears general manager Ryan Poles didn't draft Fields and may want to hand-pick his own replacement for the No. 11 overall pick in the 2021 draft. Poles opted to keep Fields and trade the No. 1 overall pick to Carolina last offseason. The Panthers the pick on on QB Bryce Young (oops). USC's Caleb Williams is considered a much better pro prospect than Young was and has even been compared to a young Patrick Mahomes.

Bears fans know all too well that former GM Ryan Pace took Mitchell Trubisky at No. 2 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft instead of Mahomes. Pace also was also who moved up to get Fields. There's no question that the former Ohio State star has taken a big step forward, but he's still inconsistent. Fields has a 10-27 career record and has thrown for one or fewer TDs in 10 of 12 starts this season. Some of that is because of conservative play-calling by offensive coordinator Luke Getsy.

Fields also has just one more season under his rookie contract and the team will have to make a decision on his fifth-year rookie option by May. Fields will have a cap hit of $6 million in 2024, and should the Bears pick up his fifth-year option, he'll hit the cap for another $23.3 million in the 2025 season. After that, the going rate for veteran quarterbacks on the open market regularly produces cap hits of $35 million and greater.

If Poles believes in Fields (and the QB has clearly won over the locker room), he could trade down a spot or two for a team desperate for Williams like Washington or New England. That way, the Bears still get Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. – most teams are hesitant take a wideout No. 1 overall these days – and a huge haul of additional draft picks. Many around the league believe Chicago would get more in a trade than it did last year from Carolina even though the Panthers had to move all the way up from No. 9. That trade has been a heist for the Bears so far.

If Poles wants to restart a rookie contract clock on his most important position, he could trade Fields – the general consensus is that he would return at least a second-round pick – and simply take Williams. There is no more valuable asset in the NFL than a star quarterback still on his cheap rookie deal. The Bears are the only franchise in the league that has never had a quarterback with 30 passing TDs or 4,000 passing yards.

Fields is 0-5 vs. Green Bay, which has won nine straight in the series by an average score of 29.9-16.7. They played Week 1 in Chicago and the Packers rolled 38-20 as Love threw for three TDs. Fields threw for 216 with a TD, pick and lost fumble – he still turns the ball over too much.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Who will be the Chicago Bears' Week 1 starting QB in 2024?

• Justin Fields -120
• Caleb Williams +130
• Other +1000

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