Astros vs. Twins ALDS Game 3 Tuesday probable pitchers, odds, trends: Bettors backing Houston despite facing Minnesota ace Sonny Gray

The Houston Astros were not able to hold serve at home in the first two games of the ALDS as they split against the Minnesota Twins, who took Game 2 to end Houston's 11-game playoff winning streak against AL opponents and steal home-field advantage. The Twins start ace Sonny Gray on Tuesday afternoon as the series shifts to Target Field for Game 3 and are -135 on the SportsLine consensus, but the visitors are taking the heavy lean. Click here for model picks.

At BetMGM, only 34% of the bets and 35% of the money are on the Minnesota money line. On the total of 8, the Over is taking 54% of the bets and 53% of the money. Houston at +1.5 on the runline (-185) is taking 34% of the bets and 26% of the money. Essentially, bettors are hammering the Astros to win outright, and don't expect them to cover in a close loss.

Houston batters struck out 24 times in each of the first two games of this series, and the Astros are hitting only .176 (3-for-17) with runners in scoring position thus far. Yordan Alvarez was one Astro hitting in the first two games as he was a combined 3-for-7 with three homers and five RBI. Alvarez is batting .303 with six homers and 15 RBI in nine ALDS game since 2021 and is hitting .333 with 13 homers and 34 RBI in his past 35 games this year. A total of 21 of his 31 HR in the regular season came on the road.

Right-hander Cristian Javier gets the start on the mound. He has a 6.20 ERA in his last 17 starts this year despite throwing six shutout innings in his most recent outing against Arizona on Oct. 1. This will be his first career start vs. Minnesota. Javier has a career 2.20 ERA in 32.2 career playoff innings and had a 0.71 ERA over three outings in the 2022 playoffs.

Minnesota snapped a nine-game playoff road losing streak with the 6-2 win in Game 2. Former Astros star shortstop Carlos Correa was 3-for-4 with three RBI in Game 2. He recorded his 63rd career playoff RBI in the game, pushing him past Derek Jeter and David Ortiz on the all-time list. Correa is hitting .533 (8-for-15) with four RBI in these playoffs.

Gray has a 1.04 ERA in his past five starts for the Twins and shut out the Blue Jays on five hits in five innings in Game 2 of the Wild Card series. Counting that appearance, Gray has a 1.88 ERA in 12 starts since the beginning of August. The righty was 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts vs. Astros this season. The Twins are 2-0 at home this postseason and allowed just one total run in the two games vs. Toronto.

When a Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format has been tied after two games, the club heading home for Games 3 and 4 has won the series 28 of 42 times (67%). Houston is a -120 favorite on the series line with Minnesota +100. 

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