AFC Wild Card Weekend odds: Dolphins-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Chargers-Jaguars all regular-season rematches
The three AFC wild card games this weekend should look familiar, as all three are regular-season rematches. The No. 7 seed Miami Dolphins visit the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills, the No. 6 Baltimore Ravens visit the AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals for the second week in a row, and the No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers are at the AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars, the only home underdogs of the group at +1 via Caesars Sportsbook.
Buffalo had no shot at the AFC's top seed after Kansas City won on Saturday in Week 18 because the Bills' Week 17 game in Cincinnati was declared a no contest due to Damar Hamlin's cardiac arrest. Hamlin is expected to make a full recovery and watched Sunday's 35-23 win over New England from his hospital bed with family. He tweeted more than a dozen times reacting to the victory.
Nyheim Hines, a midseason trade acquisition from the Colts, had two kickoff return touchdowns for Buffalo, becoming the first player since Leon Washington in 2010 to return two kickoffs for scores in the same game when Washington did it for Seattle. Prior to Sunday, there were just four kickoffs returned for touchdowns this season across the entire league.
The Bills opened at -11 vs. the Dolphins (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS) and it's unclear who Miami's starting quarterback will be. Tua Tagovailoa is still in the concussion protocol after missing the past two games and backup Teddy Bridgewater missed Sunday's 11-6 win over the Jets with a finger injury, but was dressed and in theory could have played if rookie starter Skylar Thompson had gotten hurt. Thompson was 20-for-31 for 152 yards with no TDs or picks on Sunday. Some books are reporting this spread could get as high as -14 if Thompson starts again, but as low as -7 if Tagovailoa can go.
Buffalo and Miami split their two regular-season meetings, each winning at home in close games. Tagovailoa started both. If the Bills advance to the AFC title game vs. Kansas City, that game will be held at a still-undetermined neutral site to accommodate for the discrepancy in how many full games the two teams have played, as team record is typically used to determine home field advantage.
Cincinnati opened at -6.5 vs. Baltimore (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC) after the Bengals beat the visiting Ravens 27-16 on Sunday to set up an immediate rematch. One can basically throw that game out, though, as Baltimore rested a lot of key players and started third-string rookie Anthony Brown at QB. The hope is that Lamar Jackson will be back for the rematch. He threw for 174 yards and a TD and rushed for 58 yards when the Ravens beat visiting Cincinnati 19-17 in Week 5.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville was 3-7 through 10 games and became the second team all-time to make the playoffs after starting 3-7 or worse through 10 games. The other was Washington in 2020. The Jaguars did win at the Chargers, though, in Week 3, 38-10, to snap an 18-game road losing streak. That moved the Jaguars to 2-1, after which they lost five consecutive games before winning seven of their last nine games.
Trevor Lawrence threw for three scores to three different receivers and James Robinson had 100 yards rushing and a TD, but he was traded midseason to the Jets. Justin Herbert's lone TD pass was to Mike Williams, who is in question for this one after being carted off Sunday against Denver with a back injury. That's the risk Coach Brandon Staley undertook by playing his starters in a meaningless game, as Los Angeles was locked into the No. 5 seed when Baltimore lost earlier Sunday. LA-JAX is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday and will be shown on NBC.
Kansas City is the +160 AFC favorite, followed by Buffalo +200 and Cincinnati (+240). No other team is below +1100. Below are SportsLine Projection Model simulations.
| AFCÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â | WCÂ Â Â Â Â Â | DIVÂ Â Â Â Â | CONF ODDSÂ Â Â | CONFÂ Â Â | SB ODDSÂ Â Â Â Â | SB |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 100.00% | 71.90% | +160 (38.5%) | 45.40% | +330 (23.3%) | 26.20% |
| Buffalo Bills | 79.20% | 52.10% | +200 (33.3%) | 26.00% | +420 (19.2%) | 15.30% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 61.20% | 26.80% | +420 (19.2%) | 12.30% | +800 (11.1%) | 6.30% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 57.40% | 18.20% | +2200 (4.3%) | 6.10% | +5000 (2%) | 2.50% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 42.60% | 13.10% | +1100 (8.3%) | 4.20% | +2200 (4.3%) | 1.50% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 38.80% | 12.50% | +1900 (5%) | 4.40% | +4000 (2.4%) | 2.00% |
| Miami Dolphins | 20.80% | 5.30% | +3500 (2.8%) | 1.70% | +6000 (1.6%) | 0.60% |
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