Aaron Rodgers traded to Jets odds fallout: Four-time MVP's 2023 season passing totals posted, New York favored to end NFL's longest playoff drought

With the 2023 NFL Draft starting Thursday, it was widely expected that the only thing holding up the trade of four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers to the New York Jets was the first-round compensation that New York would receive, and the teams finalized the deal on Monday. The various sportsbooks largely had calculated their futures odds with the expectation that Rodgers would be with the Jets. New York has the NFL's longest playoff drought at 12 straight seasons, but is now -150 to make the postseason this year at DraftKings with Rodgers at long last in the mix and +120 to fall short.

The Packers agreed to send Rodgers and their 2023 first-round pick (No. 15) and a 2023 fifth-round pick (No. 170) to the Jets for New York's 2023 first-round pick (No. 13), a 2023 second-round pick (No. 42), a 2023 sixth-round pick (No. 207) and a conditional 2024 second-round pick that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65% of the plays this season.

Hall of Fame Jets quarterback Joe Namath gave his permission for the team to unretire his jersey so that Rodgers could continuing wearing No. 12, but Rodgers reportedly will wear the No. 8 he sported in college at Cal.

DK lists Rodgers with an over/under passing yardage total of 4,050.5 yards (with the Under a slight favorite) and 30.5 passing touchdowns (Under slight favorite). Last year in a very disappointing season -- by his standards -- Rodgers threw for 3,695 yards, the fewest in his career when playing at least 15 games, and 26 TDs. All Jets quarterbacks (including a few non QBs who attempted a pass) combined for 4,040 yards passing in 2022 and 15 TDs. The franchise record for passing yards by a player is 4,007 by Namath in 1967, and the TD record is 31 by Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2015.

Rodgers has posted 10 seasons in which he threw for 4,000 yards, tied with Matt Ryan for the fifth most all-time. The Jets have had one season with a 4,000-yard passer in their history, which was that 1967 campaign by Namath, the first time a player threw for 4,000 yards in an NFL season.

Rodgers is +1600 to win a record-tying fifth MVP. He already has a strong relationship with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, his OC with the Packers from 2019-2021. Rodgers also has a strong group of wideouts led by 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson, former Packers teammate Allen Lazard, and ex-Chiefs wideout Mecole Hardman. 

Wilson is set for O/U 1,150.5 yards this year and 8.5 TDs after posting 1,103 and four TDs in 2022 with Zach Wilson (will backup Rodgers), Mike White (now in Miami) and Joe Flacco (currently a free agent) as his primary QBs.

The Jets were +15000 to win Super Bowl 57 before Week 1 last year. They opened at +2500 to win Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas after going 7-10 in 2022 with a Super Bowl-caliber defense but are now down to +1400, the sixth-best odds on the board at BetMGM. The site is heavily exposed on the Jets at +700 to win the AFC and +225 to win the AFC East. They have taken more tickets than any team on both props. The Jets have gone 54 seasons without a Super Bowl appearance. They have an over/under win total of 9.5, with the Over a -145 favorite.

New York is one of four eligible teams to appear on HBO's "Hard Knocks," along with Chicago, New Orleans and Washington. Now that the trade is complete, expect probably get an announcement any day now that the Jets will be the featured club.

Green Bay was +5000 to win Super Bowl 58 before the trade with Jordan Love taking over at QB and remains at that price. Love is +3500 to win MVP. The Jets and Packers don't play this season (New York only would send Rodgers to the AFC). The full NFL schedule expected to be out in a couple of weeks.  

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