Aaron Rodgers Fantasy football ranking: 2020 outlook, projections, ADP, value, predictions, stats

Over the past five seasons, Aaron Rodgers has finished as the QB10, QB6, QB6 in points per game (only seven games), QB1, and QB7. With no finish lower than the QB10 spot during that time, does Rodgers stand out as a value at his current average draft position of QB9? Where should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings, and what Aaron Rodgers Fantasy football outlook can you expect?

The Packers didn't do much to bolster Rodgers' supporting cast this offseason. Green Bay was among the teams most expected to add a receiver from 2020's loaded draft class, but instead used a first-round pick on quarterback Jordan Love. As a result, Rodgers will be left with a receiving corps that is largely unproven beyond Davante Adams.

The 2020 Aaron Rodgers Fantasy football value remains strong, as he's set for another 4,000-yard campaign. He's a top-10 QB candidate in most formats, but how high should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings? Here's what you need to know:

So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy ADP & ranking (via SportsLine's projection model)

No. 79 ADP
No. 9 QB

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy projections (via SportsLine's projection model) 

3,870 passing yards, 24.2 passing touchdowns, 6.6 interceptions, 187 rushing yards, 0.85 rushing touchdowns
308.3 Fantasy points

Aaron Rodgers 2020 Fantasy outlook 

Davante Adams is a prime candidate for positive regression in the touchdown department in 2020, and the same can be said for his quarterback. Aaron Rodgers' touchdown rate -- or the percentage of his passing attempts that resulted in touchdowns -- has been uncharacteristically low over the past two seasons. After posting a touchdown rate of 6.9 percent from 2011-2017, Rodgers has recorded just a 4.2 and 4.6 percent rate over the past two seasons. His rate during those years isn't just way below his career average (six percent), it's actually below the league average. Considering PFF has graded Rodgers as the sixth- and seventh-best passer in 2018 and 19, respectively, it's fair to assume that his subpar touchdown rate is a product of some poor luck.

The lack of touchdowns was not caused by any lack of opportunity, either. Rodgers had the fifth-most red zone passing attempts and second-most completions in 2019, while also ranking third in attempts that were thrown into the end zone. After converting 40 of 75 end zone attempts (53.3 percent) into touchdowns during the 2016 and 17 seasons, Rodgers converted just 25 of 87 end zone attempts (28.7 percent) over the past two seasons.

Age and a diminished supporting cast are the two most obvious reasons for Rodgers' dip in efficiency, but that doesn't explain him falling well below the league average (38.8 percent) when attempting to convert end zone throws into touchdowns. Even while changing offensive schemes and continuing to struggle to convert from within scoring distance, Rodgers has remained near the top of the league in red zone and end zone passing attempts over the past couple seasons. As such, I see no reason to expect a decrease in his opportunities from that range. If he can convert at even a league-average rate, the sheer amount of red zone attempts could lead to the strongest Fantasy season we've seen from Rodgers in several years.