2024 NFL Week 8 betting power ratings: Adjusting for 49ers and Buccaneers injuries, how to value all 32 teams
Injuries hadn't seemed as big a factor in the NFL season as usual over the last few weeks (unless you're the Chiefs), but boy did that change in Week 7. Three starting quarterbacks couldn't finish their games due to injury: NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels left after one drive due to a rib injury and is considered week to week; Aidan O'Connell broke his thumb and will be out for at least a month; and Deshaun Watson will miss the rest of the season due to a ruptured Achilles. Washington deserves a big adjustment downward for as long as Daniels is out, and the market line has moved four points from the lookahead so far with Chicago favored by 2.5. The other two injuries may not require any adjustment, as there's likely little difference in the Raiders offense with Gardner Minshew at QB, while Watson has been the worst QB in the league this season.
Typically QB injuries matter the most to spread power ratings, but there are a couple injury situations that may matter more in San Francisco and Tampa. The 49ers and Buccaneers combined to lose three top-tier receivers likely for the season, while a fourth may be out for the short-term and the top tight end in the pair is also managing an injury. For the Buccaneers, Mike Evans suffered a hamstring injury in the process of catching a would-be touchdown that would've made the game 10-7 had he not dropped the ball to grab for the injured leg. Baker Mayfield threw an end-zone interception later in the drive and that was that for the Bucs. To make matter worse, Chris Godwin suffered a dislocated ankle that will end his season on Tampa Bay's final drive.
Evans and Godwin are a massive reason the Bucs had looked on track to win the NFC South. Including last night, the pair have 107 targets on the season versus 38 for the rest of the team's receivers combined. The team drafted Jalen McMillan in the third round this year likely with the hope he could ascend to the starting lineup in 2025 if Godwin left in free agency. Now his timetable is accelerated, as the receiving group will come down to McMillan, Sterling Shepard, Trey Palmer and whomever the Bucs are able to add to the active roster, whether that's a practice squad player like Ryan Miller, a free agent like Michael Thomas or Chase Claypool, a trade target like DeAndre Hopkins or some combination thereof.
The 49ers lost Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL in Sunday's loss to the Chiefs that featured very little involvement from Deebo Samuel due to what turned out to be pneumonia, which resulted in him being checked into the hospital on Sunday night with fluid in his lungs. Third receiver Jauan Jennings was already sidelined due to a hip injury, while tight end George Kittle is managing a foot sprain. Throw in the injuries at running back, which have caused Christian McCaffrey not to play a down this year and Jordan Mason to play through a sprained AC joint. It's a lot to overcome with the 49ers at 3-4.
The silver lining for San Francisco is that first-round pick Ricky Pearsall was able to make his season debut on Sunday after recovering from a gunshot wound suffered prior to the start of the season. Like McMillan, Pearsall was drafted with the thought he could be a starter in 2025 before Aiyuk agreed to an extension in late August. He'll now be leaned on more than expected moving forward, though it wouldn't be surprising to see the team start the more proven Jennings in Aiyuk's spot once he's healthy.
So what do we do with these teams in our spread power ratings? Both obviously need to be downgraded, with the Buccaneers' situation more severe. I've moved the 49ers from tied at the top of my ratings to tied with the Eagles for eighth, though they'll get a bump back up once Samuel is healthy. We should also have confidence that Kyle Shanahan, one of the best offensive coaches in football, will be able to manage around the Aiyuk injury as the season goes on. The Bucs go from an above-average team to well below average until we can have confidence in their offense, and I've slid them down to 23rd in a tie with the Broncos, a team that has a better defense and maybe even a better offense if the Bucs' receiving situation proves to be a death blow.
What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success.Â
Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 8 NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!Â
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