As a Bills fan, I have an eternal pessimism around my favorite team. How could I not? Ever since watching my first NFL game with my extended family in the Buffalo area and seeing the distress Scott Norwood could cause in something called the Super Bowl, it's been a ride of mostly valleys mixed in with a few peaks that always left us envious of the teams climbing taller mountains. So keep my pessimism in mind when I tell you the following:

Don't these Bills have an aura of the post-Tyreek Hill Chiefs? Josh Allen is spreading the ball around and has yet to throw an interception in three games, already matching his total number of pickless games from last season. The rushing attack is further along than Kansas City's after Hill left, and the same could be said about the defense, which has shrugged off multiple key injuries to look like one of the best units in the league.

The real test begins now, with three straight road games against the Ravens, Texans and Jets, all teams projected to compete for the AFC title in the preseason. In the past, I'd have chalked all three up as losses and been happy stealing one win in this stretch. Now? If the Bills can go 2-1 in their next three, they'll have justified me moving them past the Ravens and Texans to be tied for the No. 1 spot in my spread power ratings with the Chiefs.

What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success. 

Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 4 NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!