2024 NFL Week 12 betting power ratings: Adjusting for Tommy DeVito, plus how to value all 32 teams
Last week we talked about the massive playoff implications of several key Week 11 matchups, and most of them lived up to the hype. The Commanders and Eagles kicked things off Thursday with a surprising defensive battle that turned into an Eagles boat race in the fourth quarter, setting up the Eagles to make a run at the No. 1 seed while the Commanders will likely battle for a wild-card spot.
Next, we had the Ravens and Steelers square off in the 1 p.m. Sunday slate in another defensive struggle where the Steelers scored nothing but field goals en route to victory for a second time this season. The Ravens certainly aren't out of the divisional race by any means, especially when you consider Pittsburgh's tough schedule over the rest of the season, but at 1.5 games back the Week 16 rematch becomes a must-win for Baltimore to avoid wild-card status.
The late afternoon slate served as the main course, with the Bills beating the Chiefs in the regular season for a fourth straight year. Even shorthanded at receiver, Buffalo looked like the better team, but will that carry over to January in a way that it hasn't during the Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes era? While the attention of the nation was on that potential AFC Championship preview, the Seahawks managed to upset the 49ers with a late TD, throwing the NFC West into even more upheaval with the 6-4 Cardinals at the top and everyone else at .500.
We've adjusted the spread ratings of each team involved in those big matchups and everything else in Week 11, as well as those on the bye expected to look different come Week 12, such as the Giants with a new quarterback under center in Tommy DeVito. I'll share those ratings below along with my projected spread for every game this week.
What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success.Â
Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 12 NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!Â
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