For one week, the consensus favorite in NFL survivor pools did what it was supposed to do and win with ease in Week 4. That led to the consensus favorite 49ers getting a small sliver of the initial field in most pools through one month of the season. Unfortunately the clear pivot was the one who lost, as the Jets rewarded those who held off using them in Week 3 to take advantage of a matchup with the Broncos by losing in bad weather at home.

If you've made it through to Week 5, congrats! It's been an impressive run navigating one of the worst early-season minefields for big favorites in recent memory. The 49ers and Chiefs in Week 4 became just the second and third favorites of 6.5 points or more (out of 10) to win outright this year, with the 49ers being the first to cover the number. I'm still mad at the Ravens for that Week 2 meltdown after watching how well they've played the last two weeks.

When looking at your options for Week 5, it's important to project out the rest of the schedule (hence the point of this weekly column). It's also important to know the format of your pool, as Circa Survivor adds two standalone slates for Thanksgiving and Christmas. With few big favorites some may look for interesting pivots, but I would avoid taking the Commanders against the Browns.

Washington has been on fire of late and is coming off a 42-14 road win over the Cardinals, so those who have used one or both of the top favorites this week are going to be drawn to the Commanders as one of the best options. That's doubly true with their opponent being a Browns team that cannot stay healthy enough up front to put together a functional offense. That being said, it's possible Cleveland is healthier at the tackle spots this week, and if Deshaun Watson has any time to throw he should be able to have success against one of the worst defenses in the league. Washington ranks last in percentage of drives allowing a score.

Jayden Daniels has also been playing at an unsustainably high level, becoming the first quarterback (min. 15 attempts) to have an 85% completion rate in back-to-back games. Even if he continues to play well, Washington isn't going to keep putting together 6-7 scoring drives each week, so the defense will have to replicate the success it found against an Arizona offense missing one of its top weapons to continue to stack wins. If you do believe in this Washington team, wait until Week 7 and fire them against a Panthers team we know has a terrible defense rather than a Cleveland unit that could get enough stops to win a game that stays in the 20s on each side rather than allows Washington shoot well past 30 again.

Why listen to me? I'm 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks over the last seven years and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) over the last nine years in the Las Vegas ATS contests. While this doesn't involve picking against the spread, I do believe by applying the strategies I've developed to have long-term success on those picks to survivor pools, we'll be in the best position to outlast the competition this season.  

Below, you'll find my top options for this week as well as a tiered set of options for every week over the rest of the season, including breakouts for the Thanksgiving/Black Friday and Christmas slates. Let's dig in.

What are the best options to use in survivor pools in Week 5? And which teams should be saved to use later in the season? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL Survivor Pool strategy from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017 to 2023, returning almost 50 units!