Just like Week 2, Week 3 in NFL survivor pools was a dumpster fire, with the main difference being there wasn't a consensus pick like the Texans over the Bears to save people. The top four options from Circa Survivor all lost, eliminating 80% of entries that made it through the first two weeks. In all, 13,624 of the 14,266 entries did not make it to Week 4.

So what's been the most likely path to survival? The Seahawks had nearly as much backing as the next three most popular teams that survived combined in Week 1, and in Week 2 most survivors went with the Texans or were rewarded backing the Chargers on the road against the Panthers. This past week, those who jumped on the Jets prior to the Thursday game made it through with ease, and those who didn't and weren't eliminated by the four most popular picks were almost as likely to be eliminated by backing the 49ers or Titans as they were to survive with the Seahawks or Bills.

In large pools like Circa Survivor, it's still likely at least one person makes it through the season 20-0. In smaller pools it's possible things have already wrapped up, or that the pool is still going only because no one survived the Week 3 dumpster fire.

When looking at your options for Week 4, it's important to project out the rest of the schedule (hence the point of this weekly column). It's also important to know the format of your pool, as Circa Survivor adds two standalone slates for Thanksgiving and Christmas. With the league's worst offense making a change at quarterback, I would avoid taking the Bengals against the Panthers.

The Bengals have eliminated more than 40% of the Circa field on their own as the top consensus play in Weeks 1 and 3, and there are going to be people considering using them this week because they're desperate to stay in playoff contention after an 0-3 start. They should score plenty of points against a bad Panthers defense, but I want no part of that defense in an Andy Dalton Revenge Game. Dalton became the first QB this season to throw for 300 yards and three TDs in the same game with his debut last week against a Raiders team we stressed avoiding in this space. Even if the Bengals score 30 in this game, their defense could give up 31 and lose this game.

Why listen to me? I'm 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks over the last seven years and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) over the last nine years in the Las Vegas ATS contests. While this doesn't involve picking against the spread, I do believe by applying the strategies I've developed to have long-term success on those picks to survivor pools, we'll be in the best position to outlast the competition this season.  

Below, you'll find my top options for this week as well as a tiered set of options for every week over the rest of the season, including breakouts for the Thanksgiving/Black Friday and Christmas slates. Let's dig in.

What are the best options to use in survivor pools in Week 4? And which teams should be saved to use later in the season? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL Survivor Pool strategy from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017 to 2023, returning almost 50 units!