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    2024 NFL playoff power ratings: How to value Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers and Lions for making spread picks

    Get the edge over the sportsbooks in the divisional round and beyond by developing a power rating system to stay ahead of the lines

    We're now down to four teams left in the race to be crowned Super Bowl champion, and the remaining contenders have a mix of teams for everyone. Start with the Chiefs, who qualified for their sixth straight AFC Championship Game by beating the Bills on Sunday and have been in three of the last four Super Bowls. If you're a fan of watching ol' reliable, this is the team for you.

    Then you have the 49ers, a historically great franchise with five Super Bowls on its resume but with the last coming 30 years ago. Despite the lack of recent titles, the 49ers are playing in their third straight NFC Championship Game as well as the fourth in their last five years. If you're a fan of rooting for once-successful teams to finally recapture that greatness after a long drought, this is the team for you.

    Then you have the Ravens, a franchise that didn't exist when the 49ers won their last title yet has won two Super Bowls since joining the league. However, this is the furthest the Ravens have reached in the postseason since that last Super Bowl victory more than 10 years ago, and a dominant win last week may have helped to start quieting doubters of soon-to-be two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. If you're a fan of an elite talent finally ending the "can he win when it matters?" discourse, this is the team for you.

    But the team for most people will probably be the Lions, a team that's never been to the Super Bowl that is back in the NFC title game for the first time in more than 30 years after winning its first home playoff game in that same span. If you're a fan of a long-suffering franchise finally shaking off its "lovable losers" persona to reach the top of the mountain, this is the team for you.

    The bookmakers were certainly impressed by the Chiefs' win over the Bills, installing Kansas City as 3.5-point underdogs in Baltimore, with the number getting bet down to Ravens -3 in some markets. In the other conference, the 49ers opened as seven-point favorites over the Lions, but that was too much for a market thirsty to see Detroit in the Super Bowl, with that line getting bet down to 49ers -6.5 in a majority of spots.

    I've made my adjustments based on the divisional round, and two teams saw a rise in rating while one stayed the same. I actually decreased my rating for one of the four remaining teams as I have concerns after what we saw last week. See if you can guess which one before you scroll down to reveal my spread power ratings for the final four teams.

    If you need a refresher on how to build spread power ratings, why they're important for beating the market and how successful I've been with this system at SportsLine, check out the Week 1 version of these power ratings. 

    Which line is several points off its power rating projections for the conference championships? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see playoff power ratings from the expert who's 535-450-30 on ATS picks from 2017-22, returning $3,532 to $100 players!

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    R.J. White
    R.J. WhiteSuper Stat Geek

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