Our spread projections article from last week did a good job predicting what would happen for the Ravens and 49ers' first matchups of the playoffs. We said a potential Texans-Ravens matchup should have a spread of Ravens -9, and after opening at Ravens -8.5 at many places it's up to -9.5. We also said in the unlikely event the 49ers hosted the Packers, Green Bay's success on the road in Dallas should make the line just 49ers -9. After opening at 49ers -10 in some spots, the market has moved off the key number and hit 49ers -9.5.

The other two matchups weren't as spot on, for I believe different reasons. In Chiefs-Bills, Buffalo suffered a number of defensive injuries last week that is keeping the line from getting to Bills -3 for any period of time, when we projected it would be on the other side of the key number. In Buccaneers-Lions, a dominant win by Tampa coupled with a one-point win for the Lions made that spread lower than expected on the opener, though it has risen a bit in favor of the Lions and closer to where we projected it without knowing the margin of victory in either team's previous game.

I've locked in spread picks for all four games, which you can find on my SportsLine expert page, as well as a number of props for the divisional round. So now it's time to again turn our attention forward and project what the conference championship spreads will look like for every possible combination of winners.

This is based on my spread power ratings I maintain throughout the season, making adjustments based around injury and performance. After finding the ratings differential between two teams in a matchup, I apply my unique home-field advantage ratings to crank out a projected spread. The method has helped me get ahead of several mis-priced lines and also find where my value differs from the market and potentially jump on the side with value if I'm satisfied in the circumstances surrounding a particular game.

When projecting a rating a week ahead like we're doing here, we have to take into account the implied result of the current week. For example, the Texans should get a substantial increase if they take down the Ravens in Baltimore, but a Ravens victory could mean anywhere from leaving their rating as is or bumping it up slightly heading into the next round.

With that out of the way, let's get to the conference championship spread projections for all possible matchups.

Which potential conference championship matchup should have the tightest spread? And which results would benefit the No. 1 seeds the most if they win?  ... Join SportsLine right now to see projected conference championship spreads for every possible matchup from the expert who has dominated the NFL on spread picks, finishing up more than 35 units from 2017-22!