The No. 11 seed North Carolina State Wolfpack will try to extend their magical NCAA Tournament run when they face No. 4 seed Duke in the Elite Eight on Sunday evening. NC State won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament, and they have generated even more momentum with three wins in the Big Dance. Duke knocked off No. 1 seed Houston on Friday, putting the Blue Devils one game away from another Final Four appearance. 

Tipoff is set for 5:05 p.m. ET from American Airlines Center in Dallas. The Blue Devils are favored by 7 points in the latest Duke vs. NC State odds, per SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 143.

Before making any NC State vs. Duke picks or NCAA Tournament predictions, you need to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. (See up-to-date odds for every game this week on our college basketball odds page.)

The model simulates every Div. I college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the Sweet 16 round of the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 152-109 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,800 for $100 players. It also has a strong 32-21 (+890) record on top-rated spread picks this season, and it called 13 Sweet 16 teams this year. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model knows that the Blue Devils crushed Vermont and James Madison during the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament before taking down the top seed in the South Region when they beat Houston on Friday. Sophomore center Kyle Filipowski had 16 points and nine rebounds, while Houston shot just 25% from 3-point range. Duke beat NC State in a 79-64 final when these teams met earlier this month in the regular season.  

But the model has also taken into account that the Wolfpack got revenge for the regular-season loss when they took down Duke in the ACC Tournament. They added wins over Virginia and North Carolina to win the conference tournament, and they have added wins over Texas Tech, Oakland and Marquette in the NCAA Tournament. NC State has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 games against Duke. 

For Sunday, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. NC State. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread is the better value. You ABSOLUTELY need to see the model before locking in any college basketball picks.

Who wins Duke vs. NC State, and which side of the spread is the better value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the NC State vs. Duke spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 152-109 roll on college basketball picks!