2024 MLB futures, odds: American and National League MVP betting strategy from proven expert
For the first time since 2011, a member of the Los Angeles Angels isn't the betting favorite to win the American League MVP Award. One of Albert Pujols, Mike Trout or Shohei Ohtani had the shortest odds before each of the last 12 seasons. Pujols never won an MVP with the Angels (three with St. Louis), while Trout won three (last in 2019) and Ohtani claimed two of the past three. The Japanese superstar is now among the National League favorites with the crosstown Dodgers. Don't bother betting on the brittle Trout any longer.Â
Ohtani joins new Dodgers teammate Mookie Betts in having a very realistic shot at joining Hall of Famer Frank Robinson as the only players to win an MVP in both leagues. Robinson won it in 1961 with Cincinnati and in 1966 with Baltimore. The only teams yet to have an MVP are the Diamondbacks and Mets in the NL and the Rays in the AL. It's likely none of those droughts will end, although Arizona outfielder Corbin Carroll, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, isn't outside the realm of possibility at +1800.Â
I love jumping lines and finding value in games but find no reason to do that for futures odds like these. It's much smarter to wait as close to the regular season as possible for injury concerns, a point made clear to me this week with reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. of Atlanta, the +500 favorite to repeat. The Braves announced that Acuña Jr. has irritation in the meniscus of his right knee but is expected to be ready for Opening Day. That's still a massive red flag for someone whose speed provides so much value.Â
Incidentally, I do not recommend betting on Acuña to win MVP again, not solely because of that injury, but because there's just no way he will statistically match his historic 40-homer, 80-steal 2023 season and voters will "punish" him accordingly -- the same reason college football players don't repeat for the Heisman Trophy.Â
Also, like the Cy Young Award, if you can find a player in a contract year, all the better. Ohtani obviously was in 2023. Some MVP candidates in contract years in 2024 include the Yankees' Juan Soto, the Mets' Pete Alonso and the Astros' Alex Bregman. If the Mets were going to be any good, I might consider Alonso, but he also might be traded to the AL at some point this summer. Note that I will never recommend a pitcher for MVP. It's essentially a hitters' award now.Â
Before you make any bets on who wins the AL and NL MVP Awards, you need to see who SportsLine expert Matt Severance is backing. Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. He's up +1969 on his MLB plays on SportsLine. Anybody following him has seen HUGE returns!
Now Severance has shared his 2024 MVP picks. Be sure to see who he's backing before locking in any picks of your own.
Which players are the best bets to win the MVP Awards? And which longshots offer excellent value? ... Join SportsLine right now to see AL and NL MVP picks from SportsLine's expert!
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