The 2024 Food City 500 will take place on Sunday at Bristol Motor Speedway. After three seasons of converting the iconic track to dirt for this event, the NASCAR Cup Series will revert to concrete this year. The green flag is scheduled to drop at 3:30 p.m. ET and is scheduled for 500 laps around the 0.533-mile oval. Denny Hamlin is a three-time winner at Bristol and the 5-1 co-favorite with Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell in the 2024 Food City 500 odds. They're followed by Kyle Larson at 21-4 and defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney at 11-1 in the NASCAR at Bristol odds.

Before scouring the 2024 Food City 500 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Bristol predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Food City 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Our proven projection model has simulated the 2024 Food City 500 10,000 times and come up with a surprising leaderboard. Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot during the 2023 season, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. 

It also called its first victory of the 2024 season with Larson winning again in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout. It impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021 too. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 16 winners since 2021 and hit nine last year alone! Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship and released its projections.

The model knows Bristol Motor Speedway is one of NASCAR's greatest tests. With steep banking and tight corners, close-quarters racing is common and pit strategy is key. It's the only remaining track on the NASCAR schedule with two separate pit roads. The track began hosting the NASCAR Cup Series in 1961 and Darrell Waltrip's 12 wins at Bristol are the most in NASCAR history. He's followed by Rusty Wallace, Dale Earnhardt and Cale Yarborough at nine while Kyle Busch is the active leader with eight wins at BMS.

For the 2024 Food City 500, we can tell you the model is high on Martin Truex Jr., even though he's a 22-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Bristol odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five! There are far better values in the 2024 Food City 500 starting lineup.

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Bristol odds longer than 15-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who he is before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2024 Food City 500, and which EPIC longshots are a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 16 winners!