A spot in the 2023 Kentucky Derby will be on the line when 11 3-year-olds leave the starting gate in the 2023 Rebel Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. The winner of the $1 million Rebel will earn 50 qualifying points for the Derby, virtually guaranteeing himself a spot in the starting gate in the first leg of the Triple Crown. Trainer Brad Cox will send out the top two favorites in the Rebel Stakes odds: Verifying, who's the 2-1 morning-line favorite, and Giant Mischief, who's the 5-2 second choice. Post time for the Rebel is 6:23 p.m. ET.

With 11 lightly raced 3-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any Rebel Stakes picks.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010. In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.

On Dec. 26, Menez hit the Pick 5 at Santa Anita Park for $798.70. And in the last five weeks he has cashed the winner of the Lecomte Stakes ($172.50), the exacta in the Southwest Stakes ($468), the winner of the Holy Bull Stakes ($180) and the winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes ($228).

Now, Menez has handicapped the field for the Rebel Stakes, made his picks and formulated his bets.

Menez is almost completely fading the 2-1 morning-line favorite, Verifying. "He drew the rail for the Rebel, which means he will either have to show elite speed that he has never shown before or work out a trip from the rail in an 11-horse field," Menez told SportsLine. "Neither is an optimal option, which is why I'm mostly playing against him."

Instead, Menez's top pick is a double-digit longshot who "gets a favorable pace setup" on Saturday. He also is high on another runner who is coming off a "good effort." He is including these horses in his wagers, and so should you. You NEED to see which horses they are before making any Rebel Stakes picks of your own.

So what double-digit longshot wins the Rebel Stakes? What other horses are must-backs? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? ... Join SportsLine now to get Rebel Stakes picks and wagers, all from the expert who nailed four straight Kentucky Derby prep races in the last five weeks!