2023 NFL MVP odds: Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa now co-favorite with Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes after 446-yard day in upset of Chargers

The only Miami Dolphins player to win the NFL MVP Award was the great Dan Marino, who did so in 1984. Current Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa got the biggest MVP boost of any player following Week 1 at DraftKings, dropping from +2200 to a +700 co-favorite with Kansas City's two-time winner Patrick Mahomes to take the 2023 award.

Tagovailoa's concussion problems were the headline of his 2022 campaign, but how good of a season the lefty was having last year before it was derailed by injuries sometimes gets lost. He led the league in rating, was on track for a potential 5,000-yard season and was in MVP contention. Tagovailoa's receiving duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle almost isn't fair.

In Sunday's 36-34 upset win at the Chargers, Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards and three scores. It was the fourth-largest passing yardage mark in a season-opening game in NFL history, trailing only Norn Van Brocklin (554 yards in 1951), Tom Brady (517 yards in 2011) and Marino (473 yards in 1994), and the most ever against the Chargers. 

Tagovailoa also had 469 passing yards and six touchdown passes in Week 2 of the 2022 season and thus became the fourth QB all-time with two games of at least 450 passing yards and three touchdown passes in their first four career seasons, joining Mahomes, Marc Bulger and Joe Burrow.

Interestingly, Mahomes remains the +330 favorite to throw for the most yards in the league even though Tagovailoa is comfortably in first place and Mahomes is 12th with 226. Minnesota's Kirk Cousins is second with 344 yards and +600 on the prop, while Tagovailoa is +700.

Hill, meanwhile, caught 11 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, his first 200-yard game with Miami and the third of his career. It was the third-most receiving yards in a season opener in league annals. It was Hill's third career game with at least 200 receiving yards and multiple touchdown receptions, joining Don Hutson and Charlie Hennigan as the only players in NFL history with at least three career games with at least 200 receiving yards and a minimum of two TD receptions.

Hill is now the +900 co-favorite to be named Offensive Player of the Year with Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, who was the 2022 winner. Hill was the favorite for a spell last year as well but ended up fourth. For MVP, Hill remains a +5000 longshot. He is the +200 favorite to lead in receiving yards. Jefferson (150 yards) is second at +450.

Miami is at New England this Sunday and the SportsLine Projection Model has Tagovailoa throwing for 286 yards against a very good defense. Hill is projected for 91 yards on 6.4 catches.

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