As someone who thinks about the NFL on a macro level, I've always loved the NFL Draft, an annual event that allows for months of thought experiments as we try to get inside the mind of 32 general managers and their personnel departments. With previous experience as CBS Sports' NFL Draft editor, I've spent a lot of time digging into that process and piecing together information in order to predict what's going to happen on Day 1 of the draft and beyond (longtime readers will remember my massive seven-mock drafts with team-by-team analysis that always had upwards of 20 trades throughout the 250-plus picks).

While I'm not as close to the NFL Draft in my day to day as I've been in years past, I still very much enjoy diving into the information game during draft and predicting the first round, both with mock drafts and in order to uncover the best value picks to make before we get to draft day and a lot of what's going to happen near the top of Round 1 is already known. On the mock draft front, last year my final mock draft ranked fifth out of 32 experts tracked by the site Grading the Experts, where my long-term score ranks ahead of NFL Draft royalty like Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay and plenty of other top-tier analysts. On the draft props front, we were ahead of the Travon Walker line move last year and nailed Trey Lance at huge odds to be taken No. 3 in 2021 while reporting still heavily leaned on Mac Jones being the pick for the 49ers.

This week, sportsbooks finally posted a large swath of draft props, and already we've seen some big shifts in the odds market at the top. While Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud have been perceived to be neck-and-neck for the No. 1 pick over much of the draft process, the market has pushed Young to a massive favorite between -300 and -450 at three major sportsbooks as of Friday afternoon. That's not to say Young is locked in to being the pick with about two weeks to go; after all, the Panthers are meeting with Stroud on Tuesday, and it's unlikely they'll finalize their board before then.

I'm planning on having a final mock draft on CBS Sports during draft week, but I wanted to give you an early look at how I currently have the first round falling based on a combination of reporting, my own analysis and draft prop pricing over the course of this week. I'll also include interesting prop bets I believe are worth making before pricing tightens up as we get closer to draft day. You won't have to wait long to see the first surprise of draft night.

Let's dig in. 

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