2023 MLB updated playoff predictions: Value plays on Rangers-Astros ALCS, Diamondbacks-Phillies NLCS from proven model and expert picks
It was a wildly unpredictable first two rounds of the MLB playoffs. The three teams that won at least 100 games in the regular season not only got bounced in the Division Series, but combined to win just one game despite having home-field advantage. With the Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles both getting swept, it marked the first time multiple 100-win teams failed to win a game in a single postseason. The Atlanta Braves, who had the best regular-season record, managed just one victory, which required an epic late comeback in Game 2 of the NLDS. There has not been a winner-take-all game yet.Â
The teams with the five-best regular season records (Tampa Bay and Milwaukee were swept in the Wild Card round) are out. Many talking heads already are pushing MLB commissioner Rob Manfred to change the current playoff format, in which the top two seeds in each league get byes through the Wild Card round. Three of those four clubs this year looked out of sync by the time they took the field in their Division Series with a lot of time off after the regular season. Â
"I don't think we need five (days off)," Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said his team was swept. "Whether that affected us this series or not, I'm not going to speculate. But it's a long time off. That's the bottom line." Of course, the Houston Astros received one of those byes last year, and did not lose a single game until they reached the World Series -- which they eventually won.
We are left with an American League Championship Series between the Texas Rangers and the Astros, and an NLCS between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies. Houston is the lone division winner of that group, and the Astros didn't capture the AL West until the final day of the regular season.Â
At least one Wild Card team will be in the World Series. Previously, a total of 14 had made it to the Fall Classic and seven won it, most recently the 2019 Washington Nationals. Â
"It's only Year 2," Manfred said before Game 4 of the Braves-Phillies NLDS on Thursday of any possible playoff format changes. "I'm sort of the view you need to give something a chance to work out. I know some of the higher-seeded teams didn't win. I think if you think about where some of those teams were, there are other explanations than a five-day layoff. But I think we'll reevaluate in the offseason like we always do and think about if we have the format right." Â
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the 2023 MLB playoffs 91-73 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns!Â
Check out the model's sims on each League Championship Series matchup and an expert pick on each, as well as a percentage projection for each of the four teams to win the World Series. Â
Who wins the Rangers-Astros ALCS and Diamondbacks-Phillies NLCS? Join SportsLine right now to see everything you need to know about the 2023 MLB playoffs!
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