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2023 BMW Championship picks, best bets: Rory McIlroy predictions from golf model that nailed 10 majors

Rory McIlroy, a 24-time PGA Tour champion, will be part of the BMW Championship 2023 field at Olympia Fields

The 2023 FedEx Cup Playoffs continue on Thursday, Aug. 17, when the BMW Championship tees off from Olympia Fields Country Club near Chicago, Ill. Rory McIlroy is the defending FedEx Cup champion and he enters the BMW Championship, the second event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, ranked third after racking up two victories and 11 top-10 finishes this season. 

Jon Rahm currently sits atop the FedEx Cup standings, followed by Scottie Scheffler, McIlroy, and Lucas Glover, who's coming off back-to-back victories. With another victory this week at the 2023 BMW Championship, the 43-year-old can win three consecutive PGA Tour events for just the third time since 2004. According to the latest 2023 BMW Championship odds, McIlroy is the 6-1 favorite, with Scheffler (7-1), Rahm (9-1), and Patrick Cantlay (10-1) next in line. Glover is a 35-1 longshot on the PGA odds board. 

Rory McIlroy's Recent Form

McIlroy has been the definition of consistency since missing the cut at the Masters in April. The 34-year-old has finished T-9 or better in each of his last eight starts, which includes a victory at the Genesis Scottish Open in July. McIlroy is coming off a T-3 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and he's had success at the BMW Championship over the years. He finished on top of the leaderboard in 2012 and he's finished T-8 or better in each of his last two starts at the BMW Championship. 

The four-time major champion has been able to secure those positive results thanks to his ability to put himself in advantageous positions off the tee. McIlroy currently ranks first in both driving distance (325.7) and strokes gained: off the tee (1.075). And while he ranks 153rd in driving accuracy (54.23%), McIlroy can make up ground with his iron play. He ranks fourth in strokes gained: approach to green (0.854), which has helped McIlroy average 4.32 birdies per round this season, the fourth-best mark on the PGA Tour. 

McIlroy's putting has been a bit inconsistent this season, but he enters the BMW Championship ranked 29th in putting average (1.731) and 35th in putts per round (28.39).

About Olympia Fields Country Club

McIlroy will be part of a strong contingent playing the 2023 BMW Championship. Olympia Fields (North Course) will host the star-studded tournament, which features the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings. The club has hosted four men's majors as well as the Women's PGA Championship in 2017. 

The North Course features a plethora of hazards the players will have to avoid. In total, the layout features eight holes with water and 91 bunkers. Olympia Fields' North Course remains just one of 22 courses to be featured in every edition of Golf Digest's America's 100 Greatest rankings. The par-70 course will play at approximately 7,366 yards this week. 

Rahm finished on top of the leaderboard the last time Olympia Fields hosted the BMW Championship (2020), but it's Cantlay who enters this week's event as the back-to-back champion. With his victory in 2022, Cantlay became the first player to win the BMW Championship back-to-back since the FedEx Cup began in 2007.

How will McIlroy fare at the BMW Championship 2023, and which HUGE longshots make a serious run at the title? ... Join SportsLine right now to see who you can bank on to win the 2023 BMW Championship, and see which longshots make a run at the title, all from the model that's nailed 10 majors, including this year's Masters and Open Championship

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