2023 AFC playoff odds: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert ruled out for season; Bills, Broncos have chance to pounce

While nothing is a lock in sports, this writer is confident that Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley has coached his final game with Justin Herbert as his starting quarterback as Herbert has now been ruled out the rest of the season due to surgery on a fractured index finger on his throwing hand. The Chargers were not going to the postseason regardless, but Herbert's injury could help the playoff hopes of AFC contenders Buffalo and Denver the most.

Herbert wasn't going to play Thursday at Las Vegas regardless, so the Raiders have stayed as 3-point favorites against backup Easton Stick in his first NFL start. Stick was a former superstar at the FCS level with North Dakota State (like Carson Wentz and Trey Lance) and won two national titles. His 49 career wins are the most by a quarterback in FCS history. The record for wins by an FBS quarterback is 50 by former Boise State star Kellen Moore, the offensive coordinator with the Chargers.

Stick was the No. 166 overall pick in the fifth round of the 2019 draft by the Chargers. One might think he would have started a game by this point, but Herbert (2020 first-round pick) has been durable so Sunday will be Stick's first shot. He was 13-for-24 for 179 yards with no touchdowns or picks in relief of Herbert in Sunday's 24-7 home loss to Denver that ended any longshot Chargers playoff hopes. The only other regular-season pass that Stick attempted came in 2020.

"I have all the confidence in the world. He gives us a great look every week," Chargers Pro Bowl safety Derwin James, Jr. said. "When he got in the game, you've seen the throws that he was able to make, some of the plays he was able to make."

Staley is all but surely gone after the season with the team at 5-8 and already assured of finishing below its betting season win total (9.5) for a fifth straight season, the longest active streak in the NFL. Herbert will finish with 17,223 passing yards and zero playoff wins in his first four seasons. Only four QBs have more passing yards in a four-season span without a playoff win in NFL history: Matt Ryan, former Charger Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins.

This is a huge break for the Bills (7-6) and Broncos (7-6). Buffalo sits 11th in the AFC and is -120 to make the playoffs with No at -105. The team has to take care of business at home this Sunday vs. Dallas, but now the Saturday night Week 16 trip to the Chargers on is much less daunting. 

Denver as we noted just beat the Chargers. It sits ninth in the AFC and is +130 to make the playoffs and -165 to miss. The Broncos would have been home favorites in Week 17 vs. the Chargers regardless but now could be at least at TD favorite unless Stick looks like Kurt Warner in his debut.

Los Angeles finishes the season on Jan. 7 vs. Kansas City, and the Chiefs may need that victory to improve their playoff seeding and maybe even earn a first-round bye, although that possibility got much longer with Sunday's loss to Buffalo.

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