2023 AFC North playoff odds: Proven model projects roughly 7 percent chance Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Browns all reach postseason

The NFL has never had every team in a division make the playoffs largely because it wasn't possible for most of the league's existence, but that changed when the postseason field was expanded to seven teams in each conference in 2020. As things stand entering Week 10, the AFC North quartet of Baltimore (7-2), Pittsburgh (5-3), Cincinnati (5-3) and Cleveland (5-3) would all be in the AFC postseason field, but the SportsLine Projection Model only gives that a 6.7% shot of happening.

Obviously the biggest problem is that all four teams will be beating up on each other plenty – including in Week 18, which is all division games. The Ravens and Browns still have three games left in the division, while the Steelers and Bengals have four each. The lone division game in Week 10 is Cleveland at Baltimore on Sunday.

The red-hot Ravens (2-1 in the division) have the highest playoff percentage of any AFC team (per the Model) at 99.8%. They also have a 73.1% shot of winning the division. The DraftKings odds list Baltimore as the -130 North favorites (equates to 56.5%), -1100 to make the playoffs (91.7%) and +650 to miss. Over the last three weeks, the Ravens have beaten two division leaders (Detroit and Seattle) by a combined score of 75-9 and Lamar Jackson has become the +350 co-favorite for NFL MVP at DK along with Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. Baltimore leads the league in scoring defense (13.8 points per game).

AFC No. 5 seed Cleveland has the second-best playoff percentage at 63.5% but only wins the division in 9.7% of the simulations, and the Browns' 1-2 record so far in the North won't help matters. They can probably forget about the North if the Ravens complete the season sweep Sunday. The DK odds for Cleveland are +600 for the division (14.3%), -125 to make the playoffs (55.6%) and +105 to miss. The Browns lead the NFL in total defense and are third in scoring defense (17.4 PPG).

Cincinnati, the No. 6 seed, is rolling now that Joe Burrow is healthy and back in MVP form, but the Bengals are 0-2 in division play thanks to early losses to Cleveland and Baltimore when Burrow was far from 100% and playing like one of the league's worst QBs. Over the past two weeks, the Bengals have beaten a pair of top Super Bowl contenders in San Francisco and Buffalo. The model gives Cincy a 63% shot at the playoffs and 10.4% for the division. The DK odds are +270 for the North (27%), -300 to make the playoffs (75%) and +235 to miss.

AFC No. 7 Pittsburgh is the 34th team in NFL history to have been outgained in each of their eight games this season. Of that group, they're the only team with a winning record in that stretch. The Kenny Pickett-led offense is a problem, but Pickett does have three fourth-quarter comebacks this season -- already tying the number he had in his rookie season. The model gives the Steelers a 42.5% shot at the playoffs and 6.9% for the division. The DK odds are +850 for the division (10.5%), +140 to make the playoffs (41.7%) and -185 to not.

The AFC North teams have combined for 22 wins so far. The NFL record for most wins by a single division in a season is 51 by the 1984 AFC West: the Broncos (13-3), Seahawks (12-4), Raiders (11-5), Chiefs (8-8) and Chargers (7-9). The Broncos, Seahawks and Raiders were playoff teams. Of course, all divisions contain only four teams now, so that record isn't being broken. 

Get more out of your SportsLine subscription! 

• Picks: NFL | NBA | CFB | CBB
• DFS: Lineup Optimizer | Picks
• Early Edge: YouTube | Apple Podcasts
• Newsletters: SportsLine Daily | Fantasy

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.