The NASCAR Cup Series schedule continues on Sunday with the 2022 Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. It's the final race in the Round of 8 for the 2022 NASCAR playoffs and Joey Logano is the only driver who has clinched his spot in the championship finale next week in Phoenix. With three spots on the line in Martinsville, the green flag drops at 2 p.m. ET. Chase Elliott is the 13-2 favorite in the latest NASCAR at Martinsville odds from Caesars Sportsbook. 

Our proven projection model has simulated the 2022 Xfinity 500 10,000 times and come up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure's model nailed Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season. 

So far in 2022, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned 14-1 on his win in St. Louis. In early August it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his 17-1 odds implied and Harvick went on to capture the win at Michigan and it was high on Tyler Reddick last week when he won at Texas for a 12-1 payout. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on NASCAR Martinsville  2022 and released its projections.

Martinsville Speedway is a NASCAR Cup Series original, on the paperclip-shaped 0.526-mile oval beginning in 1949. Hendrick Motorsports has sent three of its drivers to victory lane in the last four races there. William Byron won the 2022 Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400, Alex Bowman won the 2021 Xfinity 500 and Chase Elliott won the 2020 Xfinity 500. However, Martin Truex Jr. has had the most recent individual success at Martinsville with three wins there since 2019. With Denny Hamlin's five wins at Martinsville and Kyle Busch's two, Joe Gibbs Racing has a combined 10 wins on the iconic track.

For the 2022 Xfinity 500, we can tell you the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's getting 14-1 in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Martinsville odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, the Vegas favorite at 13-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five! There are far better values in the 2022 Xfinity 500 starting lineup.

The model is also targeting FOUR OTHER drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Martinsville odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2022 Xfinity 500? And which longshots are a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Martinsville leaderboard, all from the model that nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins last season!