The NASCAR Cup Series schedule continues on Sunday with the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, Calif. The green flag drops at 4 p.m. ET. Chase Elliott is the 9-2 favorite in the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds from Caesars Sportsbook. 

Our proven projection model has simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Sonoma race 10,000 times and come up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure's model nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. 

In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-10 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Then earlier this season it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned 14-1 last week in St. Louis. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on NASCAR Sonoma 2022 and released its projections. 

We can tell you the model is high on Chase Briscoe, even though he's a 16-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Sonoma odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., one of the Vegas favorites at 17-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five! There are far better values in the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 starting grid.

The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Sonoma odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350? And which long shots are a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard, all from the model that nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins last season!