2021 NCAA Tournament South Region bracket picks: Upset watch, Baylor's toughest test and more to know

Baylor is a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history and the team to beat in the South Region.

For the first time in school history, the Baylor Bears (22-2) are a top seed in the men's basketball NCAA Tournament -- although they likely would have been just that in 2020 if the Big Dance hadn't been canceled -- and they are the +160 betting favorites at William Hill Sportsbook to win the South Region, as well as +450 second favorites to win the national title – which the school has never done (having lost in the 1948 final). While Baylor was put in the "South," it's important to note that geography plays no part in this year's NCAA Tournament with all games played in or around the Indianapolis area.

If chalk held, and it most likely will not because it rarely does, Baylor would face Midwest No. 1 Illinois in the Final Four. Those schools played on Dec. 2 in the Jimmy V Classic in Indianapolis and Baylor won 82-69. The Bears also were supposed to play West Region No. 1, unbeaten and NCAA Tournament betting favorite Gonzaga on Dec. 5, but that game was called off due to COVID.

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Before you lock in your bracket, here's everything you should consider about the South Region.

Baylor, which lost in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals to freshman sensation Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State, will open play Friday at 3:30 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium against No. 16 Hartford, the winner of the America East Tournament and in the Big Dance for the first time in school history. The Bears are 26-point favorites with a time and location TBA. Those schools last met in November 2009.

Since Baylor has never been a No. 1 seed before, it has never faced a No. 16. The Bears are 7-3 straight up in their past 10 NCAA Tournament games and 5-5 ATS – failing to cover four of the past five. They have never been favored as many as 26 points. Hartford was a 26-point underdog on Dec. 1 in Connecticut (neutral site) against Villanova and lost 87-53.

More regional breakdowns: West | South | Midwest | East

Cinderella to watch

That would be No. 14 seed Colgate (14-1), the Patriot League Tournament champion. The Raiders' lone loss was by two points to Army on Jan. 3, and one could pardon Colgate for perhaps taking the Black Knights a bit lightly because it beat Army 101-57 the day before. In the NCAA NET rankings, Colgate is No. 9 – ahead of the likes of Kansas, Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Colorado, Villanova, Texas Tech, Texas, West Virginia, North Carolina and many other powers. The school ranks No. 2 nationally in average scoring margin at plus-18.1.

Colgate, on a school-record 13-game winning streak, is in its fourth NCAA Tournament and first since 2019 when it lost 77-70 to Tennessee. The Raiders are 0-3 all-time in the Big Dance. Colgate has faced two No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 in its NCAA Tournament history. It is led by Patriot League Player of the Year Jordan Burns, a senior guard. He's averaging 17.1 points, 5.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds this season.

The Raiders open Friday at 12:45 p.m. ET against No. 3 seed Arkansas, which is a 9.5-point favorite. The total is a massive 162.5 points and that could easily be the highest-scoring game of the Big Dance as both teams are electric on offense and play fast. Colgate ranks No. 2 nationally in scoring at 86.4 ppg and the Hogs are seventh at 82.4 ppg. Should Colgate get past Arkansas, either No. 6 Texas Tech or No. 11 Utah State would be waiting in the Round of 32.

Bracket buster alert

Obviously, I think No. 3 Arkansas has a chance to lose in the first round to Colgate. The Razorbacks are 1-1 against the spread this season at a neutral site. The Hogs lost in the SEC Tournament semifinals to LSU.

If I had to pick another high seed to get bounced, though, it would easily be No. 5 Villanova against No. 12 Winthrop -- a No. 12 upsets a No. 5 almost every year. The Cats opened as 6.5-point favorites for Friday's matchup at 9:57 p.m. ET. I will 100 percent be taking the points there.

Coach Jay Wright's team simply isn't the same without senior guard Collin Gillespie (14.0 ppg, 4.6 apg, 3.3 rpg), a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award, which is given to the nation's top point guard. Gillespie suffered a season-ending knee injury on March 3 against Creighton; Villanova is 0-2 since.

Led by conference player of the year Chandler Vaudrin, Winthrop (23-1) was the Big South regular-season and tournament champion. Its lone loss was by two points to UNC Asheville. It's the 11th all-time NCAA appearance for Winthrop (1-10 record in Big Dance). CBS Sports' Seth Davis picked Winthrop over Villanova on the Selection Sunday telecast. Don't be surprised if Winthrop head coach Pat Kelsey is snapped up by a Power Six school this offseason.

Should Winthrop pull the upset, it would face either No. 4 Purdue or No. 13 North Texas in the Round of 32.

Baylor's landmine

Baylor, the No. 2 overall seed behind Gonzaga, should have little trouble in Round 1 vs. Hartford and then would face either No. 8 North Carolina or No. 9 Wisconsin, obviously two of the most well-coached teams in the country. I actually think that would be a tougher matchup for the Bears, who are 4-2 since coming off a long COVID pause, than a possible Sweet 16 game vs. No. 4 Purdue.

Wisconsin never beats itself and annually is among the leaders in fewest turnovers per game – the Badgers rank No. 1 in that category this season at only 8.9 per. North Carolina has a roster of five-star recruits.

This is the fourth time the Tar Heels have been a No. 8 seed. In both 1990 and 2000, the Heels were given a No. 8 seed before knocking off the No. 9 and then the No. 1 in the Sweet 16. UNC's NCAA Tournament winning percentage of 72.8 (126-47) ranks second all-time to Duke's 75 percent (obviously with a certain minimum of games played).

For what it's worth, the No. 9 seed went 4-0 in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament (one of those was Baylor) but then all lost to the No. 1 seed.

Final Four bound

I'm going chalk with No. 1 Baylor – both Davis and Clark Kellogg on the CBS Sports Selection Sunday telecast picked the Bears to win the South. The SportsLine optimal bracket also has Baylor, which is -200 to reach the Final Four.

Baylor leads the nation in hitting 41.8 percent from deep and is No. 2 nationally behind Gonzaga in scoring margin at plus-18.0. It's a veteran roster, too, led by seniors MaCio Teague and Mark Vital and juniors Jared Butler (the AP Big 12 Player of the Year), Davion Mitchell and Matthew Mayer. BU is 7-2 vs. AP Top 25 teams this season, including 4-0 against AP top-10 teams.

It will beat No. 2 Ohio State in the Elite Eight. The Big 12 and Big Ten were clearly the two best conferences this season, so it's fitting teams from those leagues meet for a Final Four spot.

At William Hill, six percent of all tickets sold on the odds to win the NCAA Tournament are on Baylor. That's tied for the second-most of all schools with Michigan behind Gonzaga (nine percent). A total off 11 percent of all money is on Baylor, third behind Gonzaga (20 percent) and Michigan (14 percent). 

Odds to win South Region

Odds provided by William Hill.

Baylor +160
Ohio State +300
Arkansas +750
Purdue +850
Villanova +850
Texas Tech +900
North Carolina +2000
Wisconsin +2000
Florida +2500
Utah State +5000
Virginia Tech +5000
North Texas +20000
Winthrop +25000
Colgate +25000
Hartford +100000
Oral Roberts +100000

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