The new NASCAR season begins on Sunday, Feb. 14 with the 2021 Daytona 500 at iconic Daytona International Speedway. The green flag drops on the 63rd running of the Great American Race at 2:30 p.m. ET. Back-to-back defending champion Denny Hamlin is the favorite at 17-2 in the latest 2021 Daytona 500 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. 

Our proven projection model has simulated this race 10,000 times and came up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami. 

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns! 

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2021 Daytona 500 and released its projections. 

We can tell you the model is high on Aric Almirola, even though he's a 16-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big time and doesn't crack the top five! There are far better values in this loaded field.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Daytona odds of 13-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag.  Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2021 Daytona 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin's win last year!