Micah's Picks (4 Live)
Micah's Past Picks
We've got two of the most opportunistic teams in the nation battling out with Notre Dame having the most forced turnovers with 28 and the second-best turnover margin with 16. Indiana has the fourth-best turnover margin with 15. In both cases, their schedules were fairly easy and they gained all the turnovers. Both these teams are similar statistically, that will be the story of this exciting high-scoring game. Both teams like to go over the total with Indiana going 9-3 to the over and Notre Dame going 7-5 to the over. This game gets over.
Tulane's got some troubles headed into the Bowl game. Not only did they lose their final two games to Memphis and Army, but they lost their starting quarterback freshman Darian Mensah to the transferred portal to Duke. They also lost backup QB Kai Horton who hit the transfer portal, leaving them with Ty Thompson as a starter who saw bits and pieces of time as a wildcat quarterback. LSU's playing its best ball of the season after defeating LSU and Ole Miss and the coach is staying and being fired. The point is that Florida has all the pieces and is playing well and Tulane doesn't and is on a losing streak. The play is on Florida.
This is a matter of one team feeling positive vibes and another feeling stuck in a negative molasses. The Chargers have lost three of four, albeit to really good teams, and Denver has won four straight and covered five straight. There's a tone set on a season for the Chargers that things have gone bad beginning with 32 rushing yards against Tampa Bay on Sunday. Let's face it, the Chargers gave up in the second half at home, 27-0. Denver's gone over 9-5 on the season including their last three and they've also gotten 11-3 against the spread which is the best in the NFL. What team is riding high and what team is sobbing? Broncos cover.
The Rebels have a new coach coming in next year and Cal has a new quarterback and a new receiver after Fernando Mendoza and Nyziah Hunter entered the transfer portal and will not play in this game. Cal was the favorite, and now UNLV is the favorite. Cal coach Justin Wilcox is still there and has two quarterbacks on his mind to take over the starting role. How they would do in the game against UNLV after 6-6 season is yet to be determined but I'm taking UNLV. I like quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams in his final game that ends his collegiate career. UNLV only lost a running back to the transfer portal that's it. UNLV to cover.
St. Bonaventure went 20-13 last year for coach Mike Schmidt's team and nine of last year's 12 scholarship players are no longer on the team. Schmidt had to rebuild the entire team and take in transfers from elsewhere but it's worked with amazing results with St. Bonaventure going 10-1 so far but more importantly covering nine out of the 10 games. This will be their first true road game of the season, They beat Siena last year, 89-56. The Bonnie's are getting after a defensively with only 39% shooting allowed. Siena is 2-5 in their last seven games and they only shoot 41% from the field. St. Bonnie's to cover.
The Falcons have lost four straight games and quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown eight interceptions and no touchdowns during the span. He's had six interceptions in his last two games. The Falcons are still the number two passing game in the NFL at 250 yards per game. Something's got to give in this game because the Raiders only have eight takeaways on the season and Kirk Cousins rolls into town. The Raiders are minus-17 in turnover margin with 25 turnovers. That is something that cannot be excused as they’ve lost nine straight games. The Falcons are minus-9 in turnover margin. Over is the play.
The Minnesota Vikings have won six straight and the Chicago Bears have lost seven straight and they hook up tonight in Minnesota. It looks like a no-brainer right? The Vikings are going to kill them right? Thomas Brown the new head coach, who got embarrassed at San Francisco last week, gets a second shot and has a great chance of avoiding an eighth straight loss. The biggest thing that caught my mind was that rookie Caleb Williams hasn't had an interception in their seven-game losing streak. The six-game win streak the Vikings have come against teams .500 or less. Of the last 10 meetings between the Bears and Vikings, the Vikings would have covered three times with the current spread. Bears cover.
The Seahawks have won and covered their last four games in a row. The Packers have won three their last four covering the last three. The Packers have the No. 6 offense in the NFL at 376 yards per game and average 26.8 points a game. The Seahawks have a 27th-ranked rushing game at 95 yards per game and Kenneth Walker is out for the game. These guys have been linked together over the years with some amazing games. I'm going against the grain and taking the Packers to cover.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-0 against the spread as an underdog and they roll in as an underdog to Philadelphia to play the Eagles. The Steelers are very attractive team to me, for one they’re 10-3 against the spread tied for the best in the NFL. They're also number one in turnover margin tied with Buffalo at plus-17. They lead the NFL with 28 takeaways and it’s so routine for them. The Eagles have the number one-rated defense but it's been aided by their schedule playing the Panthers, Cowboys, Browns, and Giants. The Steelers have the number 7 ranked defense but it has more substance with the takeaways than Philly. Pittsburgh to cover.
The best team in the NFL and highest-rated team with the Detroit Lions at home laying only 2.5 against the Buffalo Bills who are 10-3 with 3 losses coming on the road. It's a matchup of the top two scoring teams in the NFL with Detroit scoring 32.1 points a game and they also have the No. 2 offense averaging 394 yards per game. Detroit's unheralded defense allows 318 yards per game, 10th best in the NFL. They only allow 18 points per game. To me, Detroit is 2 points better than Buffalo on a neutral field and they get 2 or 2.5 for home-field advantage so the spread should be 4, 4.5, anything below a field goal is a gift. Detroit covers.
The Broncos come off a bye and get the Colts at home and the spread looks light to me. The Broncos have gone an NFL-best 10-3 against the spread but this spread says that these two teams are similar, equals, and that could be the furthest thing from the truth. The Colts have lost four of their last six and covered just one of their last five. The Colts have questions about their quarterback who doesn’t even throw 50% completions while the Broncos couldn't be happier with Bo Nix. On defense, the Broncos have the 8th-ranked squad allowing 315 yards per game while the Colts have the 29th-ranked defense allowing 379 per game. Broncos to cover.