We cashed this prop last week with ease. Mahomes logged 7 carries, 3 of which came on QB kneels. He was also forced to run when flushed out of the pocket by Texans DE’s Will Anderson & Danielle Hunter. Mahomes’ sneaky elusiveness always seems to shine in January. I expect him to take off against Bills vaunted pass rushers Greg Rousseau & Von Miller, who have been getting consistent QB pressure all season long. Look for Mahomes to use his pump fake, and then use his legs. Once again, I prefer Mahomes’ rush attempts prop over his rushing yards prop, in case of a positive game script for the Chiefs that includes kneels for negative yardage to close the game.

Josh Allen is 4-1 SU/ATS against Mahomes in the regular season. In the playoffs, it’s been a different story. Allen is 0-3 SU/ATS against the Chiefs in the postseason, and this will be the 2nd meeting between KC & Buffalo this season. Mahomes is 24-7 SU in the “revenge spot” after losing to the same opponent in the previous matchup. He’s been incredible in Jan/Feb, going 15-2 SU at home or on a neutral site. When Mahomes has been listed as an underdog or a favorite of a FG or less, he is 27-9-1 ATS. The Chiefs are going for the first “Three-Peat” in NFL history, and I’m not going to stand in front of that train. Chiefs find a way. Mahomes is a wizard.

TE Dallas Goedert has been one of the lone bright spots of the Eagles struggling pass attack. While A.J Brown has been on the sidelines reading self-help books, Goedert has gone over this receiving yards line in 3 straight games, including both playoff matchups. Jalen Hurts has been a bit less mobile following his first concussion, and he desperately needs a reliable middle-of-the-field target. The Commanders rank 26th in the NFL in defending opposing TE’s, so Goedert should have his opportunities when the defense loads up the box to stop Saquon Barkley.

I was hoping to see a 48 pop up, but the line is going in the opposite direction. As impressive as Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense has been, they will now have to face this vaunted Eagles defense for the 3rd time this season. Prior to Washington’s 36-33 comeback victory over Philly in Week 16, the Commanders had 14 points through 3 quarters before the Eagles sustained injuries and faltered. I don’t see this game going similarly. In their first meeting in Week 11, Terry McLaurin was held to just 1 catch for 10 yards. Jalen Hurts’ lingering knee injury may continue to limit his mobility. Philly’s ground-heavy attack will bleed out the clock, and their defense will keep this game Under the total.

Lamar Jackson went for 15 carries & 81 yards in the Wild Card round against the Steelers. Last season after Baltimore was eliminated from the playoffs, Jackson & the Ravens were criticized for abandoning their run-focused game plan. Jackson won’t make that mistake again. “Skinny Lamar” is in full effect. The Bills will need to stack the box against Derrick Henry, and I expect Jackson to beat them to the outside on read option plays. Jackson should look to put the team on his back, and clear this total easily.

The NFL’s two best offensive players square off. Josh Allen and the Bills had a historic season in terms of offensive efficiency… yet Baltimore was better. The Ravens have been a secondary away from being the best team in the AFC. FS Marcus Williams was benched, SS Kyle Hamilton stopped playing up in the box so frequently, and DB’s Ar’Darius Washington & Nate Wiggins played at an elite level down the stretch of the season. The Ravens have the league’s #1 rush defense, and if they can contain Bills star RB James Cook, Josh Allen may not be able to outscore Lamar Jackson, even if he is playing “hero ball.” In frigid weather, Derrick Henry will be the best weapon on the field. Ravens flock.

Now that +7 has popped up, I am taking the Rams catching a full TD. Philadelphia’s vaunted rush attack will be the most dangerous weapon on the field, but I believe the scorching hot Rams can keep it close. L.A’s defense has vastly improved since their Week 11 loss to Philly, in which Saquon Barkley ran all over them. DE Jared Verse and DT Kobie Turner are wrecking offensive lines. If the Rams can find a way to limit Philly on the ground, Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams and the Rams elite WR duo can match the Eagle’s offense. I give the coaching edge to Sean Mcvay. The game total is set at 43.5, so oddsmakers expect points to be at a premium. I’ll take +7.

I was ready to give this out at 9.5 carries, but have no issue taking it now at plus odds for over 10.5. Detroit plays a league-high rate of man coverage, which should give Daniels plenty of opportunities to take off. In their narrow win over the Buccaneers in the wild card round, Daniels ran the ball 13 times for 36 yards, and probably should have had 15+ carries. Washington used a lot of read-option last week, and on several occasions Daniels handed the ball off to a RB for an unsuccessful zone run, instead of keeping it. The Lions' defensive front can do more of the same. If Washington has a shot at beating Detroit, Daniels will have to do it himself.

I was waiting for a 56 to pop up, so grab this Under now at Bet MGM. The Commanders defense is starting to shape up with new addition DB Marshon Lattimore. They were able to hold the dangerous Buccaneers offense to just 20 points behind a gritty performance. The Lions now have key defensive pieces healthy in DT D.J Reader & LB Alex Anzalone. While I certainly expect offense in this matchup, I feel the total is inflated for a playoff game. The last playoff total that closed above 56 was in 2019, and featured Tom Brady & Patrick Mahomes… I’ll play the Under.

Mahomes comes into this divisional round game well rested and ready for action. He's become known for his sneaky rush ability, especially in the playoffs. The Texans upset win over the Chargers in the wild card round was led by their defensive line. If DE’s Will Anderson & Danielle Hunter are getting pressure on Mahomes, he will roll out of the pocket and use his wheels. I prefer betting Mahomes’ carries prop over his rushing yards, because we get the benefit of cashing this with QB sneaks and kneels as well. Getting +110 odds on this feels like great odds considering the matchup against a vaunted Houston D-line, and the potential for the -8.5 Chiefs to win, and end the game with kneel downs.

Darnold’s passing yard total set at 270.5 seems inflated to me. When these teams met in Week 3, Darnold threw 18/25 for 240 yards in a 30-20 Vikings loss. The Rams secondary has struggled this season, but their defensive front gets great pressure. This Vikings offensive line is really starting to miss LT Christian Darrisaw. Darnold is coming off a rough 18/41 for 166 yards showing against the Lions in Week 18. He may be turning back into his old self. If breakout rookie DE Jared Verse and company can make him uncomfortable in the pocket, he may struggle again. Even against a below average secondary, this line feels too high for Darnold in a road playoff meeting.

Rams +3 popped up for a brief moment. The line shifted back to +2.5 at -102, so you can buy this up to +3 for a good price tag. L.A has a clear rest advantage. They sat their starters in Week 18, while the Vikings were routed by the Lions. Teams that travel after playing Detroit have struggled the following week this season. Sam Darnold’s old flaws may be returning, and this Rams defense has quietly improved throughout the year. Defensive rookie of the year Jared Verse can disrupt Darnold in the pocket, and turn him into an average QB. When these teams met in Week 8, Puka Nacua unexpectedly returned from injury and torched the Vikings secondary. L.A has the weapons to beat Minnesota.

I’m joining the Jayden Daniels rushing yards party. Daniels rushed for 50+ yards in 8 games this season, and likely would have done so 10+ times if not for a late season hip injury, and only playing the first half in Week 18. I expect the rookie QB to trust his legs in his first playoff game. This matchup is likely to be a shootout, with Daniels needing to answer scores from Baker Mayfield. If the Bucs do anything well on defense, it’s getting pressure up the middle behind DT Vita Vea. Look for Daniels to scramble early and often.

Breakout TE Cade Otton will return to action for Tampa Bay tonight, after missing the last three games with a knee injury. Otton’s presence in the middle of the field was key to this Bucs offense. Mike Evans will be matched up with his rival, CB Marshon Lattimore. Mayfield spreads the ball to all targets, and he will find a reliable tight end in between the numbers. Otton went over this line in 8 games this season. There is no doubt that Otton is capable of going for 30+ receiving yards, so our gamble is ultimately on his health. Otton logged full practices on Thursday & Friday, and by all accounts he is good to go. I like him to clear this modest total easily.

McLaurin is coming off an epic end to the season, catching a game- winning TD pass to secure Washington the #6 seed. The Commanders thrilling Week 18 win rewards them with a favorable matchup against a weak Buccaneers secondary, which ranked 4th worst in passing yards allowed per game in the regular season (243.9). McLaurin has gone over this current line in 5 of his last 6 games, seeing 6+ targets in each of them as well. Tampa has three starting defensive backs that are currently ‘questionable’ to play with lingering injuries. Daniels & Mclaurin can attack this Bucs defense over the top.