Ohio State was my preseason pick to win it all and I'm not changing my mind here. They are the most talented team in college football, and while their loss to Michigan on November 30th left plenty of questions, all doubt has been removed thus far during this postseason. Sure, Texas gave them a run in the Cotton Bowl, but a banged up Notre Dame team won't keep it close for more than three quarters. While this is far from the most confident pick I've made this season, I'll roll with Ohio State to win by multiple scores and capture their third National Championship of the 2000s.

Against the Buckeyes' top-ranked defense, I have a hard time seeing Notre Dame's offense having much success. On the other side of the ball, I don't see Ohio State's offense playing as well as they did against Tennessee and Oregon. Expect a methodical effort like we saw against Texas, considering both the Longhorns and Fighting Irish defenses are also top-five units nationally. Plus, in the two matchups between these two teams in 2022 and 2023, both won by Ohio State, each only featured 31 total points. Buckeyes and under are the combo play. Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 13.

I believe this is the real National Championship Game as either of these teams should be favored over Penn State or Notre Dame on January 20th. I lean Texas, in part due to the de facto home field advantage in Dallas as well as the fact that the Texas athletes are arguably better than what Ohio State has seen all season. No offense to Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, and Michigan who the Buckeyes have played but this is another level of collective talent. I would be very surprised if this game was decided by more than one score. Ohio State 24, Texas 20.

With two elite defenses, I think this total is much too high. In my opinion, the oddsmakers are overreacting to the Buckeyes' offensive explosion against Tennessee and Oregon, while at the same time penalizing Texas for its fourth quarter meltdown against Arizona State. Ohio State has allowed 12.1 points per game this season, best in the country, while Texas has given up 14.5 PPG (fourth). There will be a few big plays, but not nearly as many as we saw in the two teams' quarterfinal games.

Both of these semifinal games should be within one score but in the Orange Bowl, I lean towards the Fighting Irish. Penn State wasn't as visually impressive in person to me in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State moved the ball plenty but kept shooting themselves in the foot. Meanwhile, Notre Dame leads the nation in takeaways (31) and should be able to keep Tyler Warren and Penn State's running backs relatively in check.

Unless the Fighting Irish turn the ball over deep in their own territory, I'm not sure I see the Nittany Lions sustaining more than two long drives, if that. Notre Dame has the fifth best pass defense in the country (167.4 yards per game) and should keep Drew Allar's success to a minimum. Not only do I like Marcus Freeman's team to win, I expect this one is going to be ugly. Take the under. Notre Dame 19, Penn State 14.

Duke lost both their top two quarterbacks to the transfer portal and now has to rely on a third-stringer, Henry Belin IV, who threw all of one pass this year. Ole Miss has an elite defense that surrendered less than 14 points per contest and hit the under line in 10 of 12 games this season. I have a hard time seeing Duke score more than twice, assuming Ole Miss plays with a chip on their shoulder for being left out of the College Football Playoff (which I think they will). On offense, the Rebels should find some success with veteran quarterback Jaxson Dart. The Rebels should romp with relative ease. Ole Miss 28, Duke 10

In a way, I'm surprised this game is being played only a day after such a senseless tragedy in New Orleans. Hopefully the teams can focus after the worst of distractions on Wednesday. Thus far, I'm 7-0 on straight up picks in this year's College Football Playoff though my against the spread / total picks leave a bit to be desired. I like Notre Dame here as I simply don't trust Georgia with a backup quarterback. The Fighting Irish have been a consistent top-3 team since Week 3 of the CFB season and I think they keep it rolling on Thursday. Notre Dame 24, Georgia 21.

The Buckeyes have the best defense in the country statistically, allowing only 11.4 points per game and it was on display in the blowout victory over Tennessee on 12/21. While these teams combined for 63 total points in their first matchup, I think both defenses will make adjustments and this game stays in the 20s for each side. I lean Ohio State to win outright but don't have enough confidence to make it an official play. Ohio State 27, Oregon 23.

I don't believe that ASU has the athletes to compete with Texas for a full 60 minute game. The Longhorns boast the nation's fourth best rushing defense (104.5 yards per game) and should focus on slowing the Sun Devils' star RB, Cam Skattebo. If that happens, there is a very little chance that QB Sam Leavitt can beat Texas on his own against the nation's second ranked passing defense (156.9 YPG). Even with a late score to make us sweat, I don't see this one going over in the Peach Bowl. Texas 30, ASU 17.

Since losing to Ohio State, Penn State has averaged 38 points per game in their last six contests. The offense is working and I'm not sure I trust the Broncos' defense to slow it down all that much. I was willing to give Boise State the benefit of the doubt to play this close, but the Nittany Lions impressed me so much last weekend with that dominant win over SMU that I've changed my mind here. A random fact of note: 13 of the last 14 Fiesta Bowls have seen 51+ points. Expect a fun, high-scoring affair on New Year's Eve (and I'll be there). Penn State 37, Boise State 24.

Both teams should be plenty motivated for this contest considering they have a chance to reach ten wins for the first time since 2013 (South Carolina) or 2001 (Illinois). During their six game winning streak to close out the regular season, South Carolina averaged 36 points per game, while Illinois scored 38 points in each of their final three games (all wins). I think this one goes back and forth with both teams comfortably in the 20s if not higher. South Carolina 34, Illinois 26.

Last year, these two teams squared off in an overtime thriller to determine which team would play for the National Championship. Michigan held on, beat Kalen DeBoer's Washington team to win it all, and now the stakes are a lot lower. Both teams have been ravaged by opt-outs and the transfer portal, but Alabama will still have the two best players on the field in quarterback Jalen Milroe and dynamic freshman wide receiver Ryan Williams. Assuming Milroe doesn't opt out late, I don't see how Michigan can keep up in this game without its best players. The Crimson Tide roll and both the school and DeBoer get some level of payback against the Wolverines. Alabama 27, Michigan 10

NC State has lost four straight bowl games, while this is only the second bowl game for East Carolina in the last decade. The Pirates are 4-1 under now full-time coach Blake Harrell and showed much promise with Katin Houser at quarterback. For the Wolfpack, 2024 was a massive disappointment, including a defense that gave up more than 30 points per game. In this battle of teams who will meet in the 2025 season opener, I like the Pirates to keep this within one score, if not win the game outright.

The big question I have in the Armed Forces Bowl is: does Oklahoma want to be here? The Sooners are down a slew of players, both injuries and transfers, while the Midshipmen have basically their entire roster intact. This is Navy's first bowl game since 2019 so you know they'll be amped with the chance to play and beat an SEC team. Oklahoma won one game away from home this season and it was a fluky comeback at Auburn. Don't get me wrong, the Sooners still have a talent advantage despite the opt-outs / transfers / injuries, but it won't matter. Let's ride the momentum with a Navy team who handily defeated their rival, (AAC Champion) Army two weeks ago. Navy 28, Oklahoma 20.