Cole Ragans is in the midst of a career season and a viable Cy Young candidate for the upstart Royals. Ragans gets a brutal matchup against the Guardians who possess one of the stingiest lineups in the league. 7 Ks is a tall order for any pitcher vs Cleveland.

Aaron Nola is having a fine season, however his strikeout numbers have plummeted. Nola is also struggling to pitch late into games and I don’t believe he should have a 6.5 line versus any opponent considering his current form. While the Marlins aren’t a strong lineup, they don’t strike a lot and rank in the bottom 10 in K Rate.

Logan Gilbert will have his hands full against a Twins' lineup that sports the lowest strikeout rate in MLB since June 1. Several Twins also have strong career numbers against Gilbert. Gilbert should stay Under this number for the sixth time in his past eight starts.

The Royals have had a really tough time scoring runs recently and have been in just a terrible slump. They finally put up 5 runs yesterday against the Marlins which is the most runs KC has scored in 10 games. The Royals have a lot going for them, first and foremost playing at home in one of the premiere scoring environments, a fully healthy lineup, and facing Guardians starter Ben Lively who has struggled on the road.

This number is simply way too low for Jon Gray who is running cold on strikeouts and is averaging the highest SwStr% of his career. While Gray may be a regression candidate, hes generating a ton of whiffs and he is due for some serious positive regression in the strikeout department. While this would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup against a stingy and explosive Orioles lineup, they still possess a 21.1% K Rate and possess the 15th highest overall K Rate in the MLB. My model has a significant edge on this line.

The Twins offense is on fire and has been excellent against left handed pitching all season long. Minnesota has the third highest OPS against opposing left handed pitching which is bad news for Diamondbacks starter Jordan Montgomery. Monty has an ERA of nearly 6.0, in addition to a career high WHIP. I like the Twins chances of knocking Montgomery out of this game before he goes 6+ IP.

Luis Gil has gotten off to a great start to his rookie season and has been arguably the Yankees best starting pitcher through the first half of the season. However Gil has had a few concerning outings and possesses a 5.50 ERA in June. Gil has also failed to record 7+ Ks in four consecutive starts and 10/15 appearances this season. He gets a very tough matchup against a red hot Mets lineup that has the best OPS in the month of June, in addition to the 7th lowest K Rate. Futhermore Gil's strikeout metrics aren't overly impressive and he certainly appears to be a regression candidate in that department.

Dylan Cease is having a fairly solid debut season for the Padres and his strikeout numbers and metrics are in line with his career averages. However Cease is struggling at the moment and sports a bloated 6.64 ERA in the month of June. This is a very tough matchup against a stingy Nationals lineup that has an exceptional 17.5% K Rate in June, good for the third lowest average in the MLB. Joey Gallo has also been missing from Washington's lineup which helps us as well.

Brandon Pfaadt hasnt been as bad as his ERA may suggest, however his strikeout production leaves a lot to be desired and is nothing to write home about. Pfaadt is sporting a 10.3% SwStr% and possesses an unspectacular 22.3% K Rate. On the surface this may appear to be a neutral matchup against a Twins squad that is ranked 15th in K Rate, however Minnesota owns an exceptional 17.7% K Rate since June 1st, good for the second lowest average in the MLB. This line should have opened at 4.5.

Surprised we are getting 17.5 considering Irvin has failed to go 6+ IP in 10/14 appearances, including five of his last six games. I'm even more surprised by the price point and getting plus money considering this would also qualify as a tough matchup against a Guardians lineup thats been good all year and ranks in the top 10 in nearly every offensive category. Cleveland has been tough on lefties and Irvin also appears to be a regression candidate.

Patrick Corbin has become such a trendy fade candidate that I believe he is being undervalued. While I'd be reluctant and hesitant to back him with strikeouts, one area he is extremely reliable and consistent is his innings pitched. Corbin has pitched at least 5.1 IP in 11/15 starts this season and six of his last seven appearances. Corbin is facing a Padres lineup that is 22nd in OPS against lefties. Padres could also be without Fernando Tatis which would be a boost for Corbin if the Padres dynamic lead off man is on the shelf.

Aaron Nola's strikeout numbers are down compared to previous seasons and his underlying metrics reflect his numbers declining. On the surface this is a cause for concern, however there is some contextual support that may go unnoticed. Nola is maybe the most durable pitcher of his generation. He also frequently pitches deep into the postseason and I believe he's learned how to use the regular season to ensure that he's peaking come August/September. Over the last 3 seasons I have observed Nola get off to what I misidentified as a slow start, only for his strikeout numbers/metrics to both improve as the season progressed. Lastly this is a really tasty matchup against a Tigers lineup that strikes out a ton.

24 year old rookie Cade Povich will be making his fourth career start. This is a surprisingly hefty number for Povich whose line I anticipated opening between 15.5 and 16.5, which is where I ultimately expect it to close. He gets a very difficult matchup against a Guardians lineup that ranks 8th in OPS against opposing southpaws. Cleveland's offense is as healthy as they've been all season and this is is simply a big number for an inexperienced pitcher making his 4th career start.

Javier Assad has been the Cubs most consistent starter and is having a tremendous season. With that being said, the former reliever turned starter is not regularly going deep into games and has failed to pitch 6 IP+ in 12/15 starts. It makes sense that Chicago is careful not to over-extend Assad considering he surrenders an OPS over .900 to opposing batters the third time facing them. This would certainly qualify as a tough matchup for Assad against a Mets lineup that has recently gotten their act together and sports an impressive .846 OPS since June 1st, good for the highest mark in the NL and second best in the MLB.