I almost posted a poll in the SportsLine Discord channel yesterday asking if anyone thought we would see 6.5. But I didn't because I thought it unlikely. So consider me surprised here. And happy. IU has been a great story and it's cool as heck the playoff forced Notre Dame to face its in-state rival. But go look at the Hoosiers' schedule. Shockingly weak as they really beat no one. Their one good opponent, Ohio State, won by more than three TDs. ND has been arguably the nation's best team since about mid-September.

Probably will come back and play Notre Dame ATS, but the first-ever outdoor cold-weather College Football Playoff game means I have to play Under on principle. Two of the top five scoring defenses in the nation, and I expect a fairly run-heavy game plan on both sides in part because it will be below freezing in South Bend with a bit of wind and possible snow showers on Friday night. Indiana ranks No. 1 against the run.

College football having the transfer portal open during bowl season is about the most asinine thing in the history of the sport. So it's hard to know for sure who is and isn't playing in this LA Bowl matchup, but we know 100% that Cal starting QB Fernando Mendoza and the team's leading receiver and two offensive linemen are not. Perhaps its top RB as well. UNLV's QB is playing, but the Rebs lost their head coach and offensive coordinator. Welcome to bowl season, where you don't so much back one team as fade the other.

In terms of motivation in Tuesday's Frisco Bowl, it would appear that Memphis has it all in trying to win 11 games for only the second time in school history and finishing ranked for the first time this decade. West Virginia has/or will lost a ton of guys to the portal and draft with HC Neal Brown fired after the RS finale and replaced by Rich Rodriguez after the bowl. It's actually hard to know how many WVU guys won't play, but it is clear that Memphis is in way better shape in that regard. Record-setting QB Seth Henigan plays his final collegiate game for the Tigers just outside of his hometown.

Marshall ate my cheese -- I don't know if that's a saying but I'm trying to start it as one -- last week at James Madison but in a way that makes me want to fade the Herd more after a two-OT wild game. Yeah a full week to rest, etc., but this is another true road game and I'm not sure that Georgia wins back-to-back weeks at James Madison and Louisiana, two very good teams. OK, maybe Georgia does. My Canes sure as heck don't. Can we just demote Mario to full-time recruiter? If it comes down to a late field goal for UL, we feel good about it as Kenneth Almendares holds several school records and is up for the Lou Groza Award.

Thursday was terrific and Friday was brutal. Wish I knew why. Guess retiring to Aruba will have to wait on Bitcoin. I'd be doing this if I was a multi-millionaire, who am I kidding? #needalifebutenjoyit. Actually didn't do too bad personally because I loved Boise State football so much and went wife's Botox fund big on them, but rare those "locks" come around. Don't think I got anything else right. I'm not sure I've gotten ASU right all season, either, but I have to fade the Sun Devils minus leading receiver Jordyn Tyson (75-1101-10). My biggest worry? ISU looks so good that the Bears hire Matt Campbell. That would be so them. Skip on Jim Harbaugh in 2024 and hire Matt Campbell in 2025.

Boise State easily handled UNLV in last year's MW title game in Las Vegas and then also won there close this year. I just don't see the Broncos losing on their own blue turf in what is the biggest game in school history with a trip to the CFP on the line. Keep in mind the Rebs are an indoor-built team now and it's going to be chilly in Boise on Friday night. Think that plays right into the hands of Ashton Jeanty & Co. I expect this to get to around -200.

As a fan, I'd love to see Army win a conference title in its first season in the AAC, but let's be honest the Black Knights started 9-0 and got ranked against an utterly weak schedule. And I'm not sure that Army isn't looking past this one -- really -- toward the Navy game. Maybe Army covers the 4.5 but win? I don't see it.

Marshall wins the Sun Belt East with a victory but obviously I don't believe that will be the case on Senior Night at James Madison -- which can't win the East but is unbeaten at home. The Dukes are winning those games by an average 37.0 to 8.4 and have allowed a grand total of four touchdowns in their building.

A terrible season at Arizona, but this would almost make it copacetic. Keeping your bitter rival from the conference title game in its first season in a league? Yeah, I think motivation will not be a problem today. But I mean I will be honest in that I thought ASU was going to be terrible this year. So did a lot of people as the Sun Devils were picked to finish dead last in the Big 12. I don't think playing a few bucks on the moneyline is the worst idea, either. I love the random trophies in rivalry games. This winner gets the Territorial Cup. Which is basically a used Starbucks container full of Skittles. Umm Skittles ...

Arkansas got bowl eligible with a win in its home finale last week, so this feels like a potential sleep-walk game in Missouri's home finale. The Tigers technically aren't out of the CFP hunt at No. 21. They can't make that but could certainly upgrade to a pretty major bowl with a win. Since his return from injury, Missouri QB Brady Cook has led the Tigers to 73 points while completing 71 percent of his passes in two games.

This has zero to do with either team's talent level but simply the final game as UNC coach for Mack Brown -- he has been dismissed and won't coach in a bowl. By all accounts, he remains beloved by the players so you have to think they are full-bore today. Plus, obviously home finale and get to keep a hated rival from a bowl with a win. If I liked UNC even a little more I'd bet a real lot on this one.

Sorry for late play but honestly I am just noticing this and most models have SE Missouri State winning outright so I'm gonna play a quick half with these points. BetMGM has 3.5 and I obviously rec that if you can get it.

Really seems like a "Who Cares?" game for Stanford as it's off a rivalry matchup loss vs. Cal and can't get bowl eligible. The Cardinal have dropped four straight away. Big deal for San Jose State to simply host a power conference school. You may not be aware, but the Spartans have one of the country's top wideouts in senior Nick Nash. You may want to wager Over any of his props today as Stanford has arguably the worst pass defense in the country.

Do I think Colorado State is a bit fraudulent? I do, and I think we saw that last week in a loss, but the Rams still have a shot to reach the MW title game -- only with a win in the home finale and then some help on Saturday. Utah State is winless away and ranks next-to-last in the Mountain West with 471.5 total yards allowed per game.