The Bucks have won 12 of their last 15 games to take a lot of the stink off their name, but it has come against a very soft schedule. They have also made this run largely for one reason: They've gotten hot from 3 -- 2nd in the league at 40.9 percent over that stretch. But OKC is not only way better than any team Milwaukee has beaten, but is specifically murder on opponents' 3-point shooting. Milwaukee is still a flawed team and OKC is going to expose that by shutting off the one thing that's been carrying the Bucks' success.

Both the Thunder and Rockets are elite defensive teams, but this is like a mini playoff game and in the end, though I believe it will be a tough, defensive battle for most of the night, OKC's ability to create individual offense with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams will allow them to pull away down the stretch.

The Warriors are 2-0 this season against the Rockets and held a 31-point lead in one of the games. They've won a shootout and a defensive affair, and get this: Stephen Curry didn't play in either game. Curry is active for this one AND the Warriors are getting points? I'll take that.

The Mavericks emphasize 3-point defense, and the Thunder move and cut as well as any team in the league. Isaiah Hartenstein is a wonderful two-man facilitator and high-post hub passer, and Dallas' overextension to cover the line should open up plenty of playmaking opportunities for Hartenstein in the middle of the floor.

The Celtics have won 16 of their last 17 games against the Grizzlies, and Jayson Tatum has literally never lost to them in his career (13-0). This can't continue for much longer. Memphis is too good, and in this case, getting too many points.

Dallas is one of the stingiest 3-point defenses in the league, but Memphis scores a ton of paint points and the Mavericks will have to sink down some to mitigate that. Jaylen Wells is always ready to shoot quickly off the catch, and he has covered this number in five of his last six games.

Mikal Bridges has had a rough go behind the arc this season. His five 3s in his last game was against a battered New Orleans team and Orlando is going to be happy to leave him to prove he can do that again. Which is to say, Bridges will be the shooter, not the creator, in this one, and he's not terribly effective creating leverage against tight pressure as it is, which Orlando applies in spades. There shouldn't be a lot of playmaking opportunities available to Bridges, who has recorded fewer than three assists in four of his last fives games including zero in two of them.

The Houston Rockets give up the fourth fewest 3s per game, both attempts and makes. Anthony Edwards has gone over this number in all but three games, but he has thrived on open looks (49% conversion rate with closest defender between 4-6 feet, per NBA.com tracking). He won't be getting a lot of those looks on Tuesday with Houston's ability to switch across the perimeter and stay attached to shooters because everyone can keep their man in front. If Edwards is going to go over, he'll have to do it against heavy contests. I'll take the under.

Golden State is on a back-to-back and Victor Wembanyama is active for the Spurs, who register as a top-10 defense and a bottom-10 offense. San Antonio struggles to score and the Warriors' shots don't fall at quite the same rate on tired legs.

Usually I hate going against teams with key players out as we too easily overlook the abilities of every NBA player and the lines tend to overcorrect, but in this case, who is going to put the ball in the the hoop for New Orleans? Their top seven players are all out. Cleveland is on a back-to-back and could be hung over from its first loss of the season, but I don't care. I'll take my chances on the Pels simply fading away on their own.

The Pelicans are without Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Jordan Hawkins. The Cavs are without Darius Garland, which hurts their offense, but have the two big men to still limit things defensively against a positively G-League Pels offense. I don't see how this game goes over 217.

Damian Lillard is expected back but he hasn't played in over a week. Combine that potential rust with the defense of the Rockets, who also aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut, and I like an ugly low-scoring affair. Keep in mind, these teams have combined to fall short of the over almost 60% of the time this season.

Nikola Jokic is out for personal reasons, but I always like teams with a star out to step up and play better than the public expects. New Orleans remains a MASH unit with all its injuries. I still like Denver to cover this line on the road.

The Knicks' perimeter defense has not exactly been stingy when it comes to giving up 3-point attempts, and Cam Thomas is a gunner if you ever saw one. Brooklyn is one of the hardest playing teams in the league and should keep this one close, giving Thomas a full minutes load at getting to three triples.

Late in his career, Klay Thompson has struggled to string together consecutive big games. He had 22 and six 3s on Tuesday against the Warriors. Don't bet on him backing that up. Fact is, Thompson has only totaled 22 points + assists in two of his 11 games so far. Yes, Kyrie Irving is out, which could mean more touches and shots for Thompson. I'm still playing the percentages.