Ottawa has played a lot of hockey lately and find themselves in a brutal spot today against a rested Utah team. Ottawa not only played last night against their bitter rival in Toronto but is now going to be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 6th game in 9 nights, and 7th game in 11...did I mention today is a matinee too? This Ottawa team has experienced a renaissance under Travis Greene and are a legitimate playoff threat. However I expect the tank to be running on E today and I'm willing to back a Utah team that's playing decent hockey that can lean into a goaltending advantage with a major rest edge here. Live dog alert in the Canadian capital.

Colorado completed a blockbuster deal on Friday trading their leading goal scorer Mikko Raantanen to Carolina as part of a 3 way deal that returns Martin Necas from the Hurricanes. There's a chance Necas joins the Avs in time for a matinee tomorrow but doesn't appear likely. Colorado has struggled to score at 5 on 5 already this season and playing 1 game without 25 goals an 69 points against a defensive minded Bruins team (albeit leaky) is a number we just can't pass up here. I expected the Avalanche to go off in the -115 range before Saturday puck drop.

Both the Rangers and Flyers understand the value of securing every single point in their race to stay in the playoff mix. Since returning from injury Igor Shesterkin has been magnificent; producing back to back shutouts. His most likely opposition tonight Samuel Ersson has quietly regained his form behind a Flyers defensive structure suppressing expected goals at a top 6 rate all season. I expect a tight checking defensive minded game tonight; for those that don't have access to a juiced 6 here going under 5.5 (+105) is a damn fine bet as well

Could we be seeing a Stanley Cup Final preview tonight in Dallas? I don't think so but it doesn't change the Star power (pun intended) on display here. Carolina is on the 2nd of a back to back, needing OT to sneak by Chicago while Dallas enters with a rest advantage. Carolina is top 5 in the league in expected goals against over their L5 across all situations. Both teams are killing penalties at an elite level which also bodes well for keeping goals off the scoreboard. Combine that with the continued absence of Stars' leading goal scorer Roope Hintz and we have a lot of key factors lining up for a lower scoring game tonight

For only the 2nd time since December 17th the Rangers face an opponent that's not currently in playoff position. Since Igor Shesterkin has returned from injury, one of the league's best netminders has flashed allowing 6 goals across 3 games leading his team to five of a possible 6 points. As I mentioned earlier this week, I'm down on Utah overall and believe their home ice and current talent mix is being over valued. I wanted to fade the Rangers regularly about a month ago but now they're a team squarely on my buy side as they turn their season around so I'll bite tonight at this modest price.

Much of Montreal's recent run of good play can be attributed to above average goaltending and focus on defensive structure especially on the road. For Utah the scoring has largely dried up scoring just 10 goals in their last 5 games even though the underlying metrics suggest positive regression. Utah's problem however is they lack elite scoring talent and without leading scorer Dylan Guenther goals are tough to come by. I'm anticipating a Vejemelka vs Montembault goalie match-up as well and with those two my fair price is 5.5 over -120. Let's root for defense

Vancouver has been grinding out results of late playing a lot of games without their full complement of difference makers. However with Petterson, Hughes, and Miller all going full speed they put together an impressive lock down effort Saturday vs Toronton. There's better than a 50/50 shot they also get Filip Horonek and his 23+ minutes a night back vs Winnipeg providing an instant upgrade on the blue line. Winnipeg's point total is nothing to scoff at but in my opinion they're overvalued in the betting market on a nightly basis. This is too generous a price to pass up on a road dog that's starting to trend in a better direction even if there's nothing fun in fading Connor Helleybuck.

Price is always the great equalizer when betting sports; especially when the ML is involved. The Isles have put together a 3 game winning streak knocking off Boston, Vegas, and Utah in succession. The common theme? They won all three of those as a dog. Tonight is a role reversal with back-up netminder Marcus Hogberg in net making just his third start of the season. Ottawa counters with Leevi Merilainen who has turned aside 104 of the last 111 shots he's faced and stabilized the position with Linus Ullmark's injury. I still grade out Ottawa as a better power rated team making them a short -109 favorite here meaning anything at +100 or better is worth a bet.

Edmonton is the rightful Stanley Cup favorite at most books right now. It should come as no surprise the Oilers also take money in the betting market most nights for that reason and it makes sense when you see they're the best team in the league generating expected goals across all situations and suppressing them in their last five. The Kings thrive in low event hockey and are built to slow down more offensive minded sides. For the season the Kings rank 1st in the league in expected goals against across all situations and are elite in most defensive metrics. As the Oilers take money the Kings check boxes for me as a bet worth making at this price.

The Rangers remain an enigma in the betting market because they're being priced like an average hockey club based on pedigree and talent but their actual on ice performance suggests they're not even a fringe playoff candidate. Rangers have now lost 7 of 8 and are just 4-15 overall in their last 19. For a team that's struggled to suppress scoring chances and goals against things won't get easier with Igor Shesterkin landing on IR. I'll continue to fade the Rangers at reasonable prices against above average teams until the market properly adjusts

The drop off in net from Tampa's starter Andrei Vasilevskiy to Jonas Johansson is the largest in the league on my ratings. Vasy has now started five straight games and Saturday marks the final game of a four game west coast road swing meaning there's a good chance he gets the night off. Tampa is also dealing with a number of injury concerns as Victor Hedman, JJ Moser, and Brandon Hagel all missed practice on Friday. Coach Cooper has said the goal of this trip is to survive and reassess given the injuries. I'll elect to move early on this game on asymmetric risk that Tampa is a bit shorthanded and elects to play their back-up netminder against the Kraken

Vegas and Edmonton both enter Saturday's game white hot; Vegas winners of 4 straight and Edmonton going 8-2 over their L10. Both teams have leaned into increased emphasis on defensive structure and scoring chance suppression. Both teams are top six in the league their L5 games when it comes to expected goals against across all situations. Both starting goalies, Adin Hill and Stuart Skinner, are in great form creating a strong recipe for a defensive minded game that has all the makings of first team to three.

Boston was embarrassed last time out to the tune of an 8-1 drubbing at the hands of the Winnipeg Jets. The final score there was rather misleading as a 3-1 game heading into the 3rd blew up on starting goalie Jeremy Swayman. Amid his struggles, Jonas Korpisalo has actually been the better option and the Korpedo gets the nod tonight. Boston performs at their best against limited offenses and Seattle is the poster child for that ranking 27th in expected goals across all situations this season. The market initially moved against Boston once Korpisalo was announced goaltender but I don't downgrade their rating on that. Time to lay the short price on the road in a good spot with the B's

Sheldon Keefe gets his second crack at his former employer after the Leafs relieved the bench boss of his duties after last season. Both teams have taken on the DNA of their new head coaches and are in the upper echelon of Eastern Conference contenders. However it's not a side I'm after here but the total with a goalie match-up between Anthony Stolarz and Jacob Markstrom. NJ rates as one of my better 5 on 5 defensive expected goals outfits and this is a Leafs team struggling to generate chances of late. Even with the return of Auston Matthews Toronto is struggling to generate offense grading out 31st in expected goals across all situations at 5 on 5 over their L5.

Goaltending; that's the word of the day north of the border with Ilya Sorokin and Sam Montembault expected to lock horns tonight. Montreal has been much better in their own barn defensively going 7-5 to the under this season compared to 9-3 over on the road. Both teams enter with scuffling power plays that are 2 for 12 over their last 5 games which helps against below average penalty kills. Then layer in the Islanders 3rd best league wide mark of 2.2 expected goals against in all situations in their L5 games and we're poised for a defensive battle at the Bell Centre tonight.