Given the unpredictable elements in bowls, heavy underdogs carry appeal. While starting QB Darian Mensah abandoned Tulane, replacement Ty Thompson is a former five-star recruit. In relief of Mensah, he was effectively run-first, which could keep the clock moving and shorten the game. He expects to have top WR Mario Williams and top RB Makhi Hughes at his disposal. Tulane's defense is rigid enough to limit Gator scoring. Though the Green Wave dropped their last two, they were impressive during an eight-game SU streak. Further reassurance: Florida coach Billy Napier is 0-4 ATS in bowls.

Best to hold off until closer to gametime to see if the hook disappears, seeing as how -3 is preferable. For now, Ohio is the play. The Bobcats know their way around bowls, having won five in a row straight up. They are unbeaten this year as a money line favorite and stand 9-4 ATS. The departure of both head coaches shrouds the matchup in a degree of uncertainty, but the changes at the top should not affect the Bobcats' stellar rush defense (ranked fifth in fewest yards allowed, 10th per carry). It is equipped to slow down Jax State's second-ranked run offense. If one side suffers from an interim head coach taking over, it could be Jax State without its imposing overlord, Rich Rodriguez.

Welcome to a projected battle of third-string quarterbacks. Injuries and transfers have erased the top names from both sides on the depth chart. The difference is, numerous other Hilltoppers have jammed the transfer portal, notably their top receiver and pass rusher, along with a record-breaking placekicker. James Madison can thrive offensively even with a QB, Billy Adkins, who has unfurled one pass all season. (It fell incomplete). Western’s rush defense is dreadful, so the Dukes should be handing off left and right . . . and up the middle. The ’Toppers’ stellar bowl record — three straight outright wins, seven of the last nine — is irrelevant because what’s left of the roster is a shell of its former self.

Memphis QB Seth Henigan torched Iowa State's defense in last year's bowl gig with 364 passing yards and four TDs. Imagine how he might fare against the 120th-ranked pass defense, which is missing portal-bound LB Josiah Trotter, the No. 2 tackler. The Tigers beat Iowa State by 10 points, following wins by 15 and 28 in bowls the previous two years under coach Ryan Silverfield. Motivation is no issue for them in the postseason. On offense, West Virginia QB Garrett Greene fesses up to a dismal 13/11 ratio for TD throws and interceptions. The Tigers' +16 turnover figure is second-best in FBS and far better than the Mountaineers' -6. Interim boss Chad Scott has never served as a head coach.

There are trends in college football, and there is this: The last 10 Army-Navy meetings have resulted in a points total under 40. Because of the sky-high stakes, coaches turn conservative in their play-calling, and they do not throw much to begin with. The Black Knights average fewer than eight passes per game by QBs and have advanced the fewest yards by air than any FBS member. The Midshipmen might be airing it out compared to prior iterations but still average just 14 tosses per outing by QBs and rank just three spots ahead of their rivals for passing yards. The clock simply does not stop that often, which sets up another sub-40 outcome for the total.

Switch the team names on the jerseys, and SMU would be spotting Clemson, which governed the ACC for years, more than a field goal. These Mustangs have pulled off a remarkable achievement: back-to-back unbeaten league records in separate conferences. Since a change with the QBs, they have scored at least 28 points in the past nine games. All four victories last month were by double digits. Flip to the defense, which has yielded at least 28 points to just one opponent. Clemson did win all seven ACC title matchups in Charlotte over a 12-year period In 2022, but this is not the big bully it once was.

Both defenses have got it going big-time. Jax State's has yielded 54 points in the last five outings, with a high of 17. Southern's has allowed 33 points in its last three games. In the regular season meeting, the teams landed under this figure with 48 scored, and Southern was fortunate to tally 15. The Jaguars were limited to 198 yards on offense. With other sportsbooks listing the total in the 40s, this figure has value.

Odd as it might seem, this game is less important for one team than next week's. As much as Army would welcome an AAC title, given its druthers, it would prefer a win over Navy. Not that the Black Knights will take this lightly, but the motivational edge should side with Tulane. Additionally, the Green Wave has dealt with an option offense like Army's and pitched a shutout versus Navy. Army appears to have flattened out late in the season, scoring more than 21 points in just one of the past four games. While the Greenies did stumble against Memphis last week, its only other defeats were no-shamers to Oklahoma and Kansas State.

Virginia Tech could be down to its little-used third-string QB for this rivalry matchup. Redshirt freshman Pop Watson, who has never started, completed fewer than 50 percent of attempts in his only meaningful playing time. The spread is influenced by Tech's dominance: 18 straight-up wins in the last 19 meets. However, this is hardly a vintage Hokies team. The Cavaliers have emerged from a gauntlet in which they met four top 20 opponents in the past five outings. Tech, which has fallen three straight times, is a welcome relief.

Texas is getting knocked in CFP chatter about its unusually modest schedule for an SEC team. Fact is, nine of the Longhorns' 10 victories have occurred by double digits, so they have handled (almost) everything in front of them. The defense of late has been two cuts above the Aggies'. The spread was tamped down over the uncertainty surrounding Texas QB Quinn Evers (ankle), who reportedly will give it a try. The Longhorns would be comfortable gong to backup Arch Manning, who would provide more mobility against a defense that has yet to contain QBs on the move.

One-win Purdue has not raised a white flag on its season, as indicated by a competitive 24-17 loss to Michigan State last Saturday. The Boilermakers will find inspiration here against its chief rival, with a chance to white-out Indiana from the playoffs. Speaking of white-out, snow is in the forecast, which should impede the offenses. Purdue has exceeded 21 points in just one game. Indiana is explosive, but the game tape from its 38-15 setback to Ohio State last week could offer clues on how to slow down the Hoosiers. They need not run up the score to impress the selection committee. Just win, baby.

Notre Dame is not just winning games. The Fighting Irish has covered in seven straight, with the average margin in the last six just over 33 ppg. Their points differential in FBS is the largest. Southern Cal lacks the offensive oomph to hang with the high-octane foes. QB Jayden Maiava makes only his third start. Beware throwing downfield. Notre Dame prevents mid-to-long-range completions better than any other defense in the land.

The last four meetings have been won by . . . Fresno? Indeed, including three at the Rose Bowl. The Bulldogs are unintimidated by their big instate brothers. They might find motivation in getting the popular Tim Skipper moved from interim to fully installed head coach. UCLA might have trouble filling the tank after an energy-sapping defeat against Southern Cal last Saturday. When playing a regular season game after confronting the Trojans, the Bruins have stumbled in seven of the past 10. With seven defeats this season, incentive to win for a bowl bid has vanished.

Arkansas' team rank in the SEC -- second in offense, 14th in defense -- might suggest this total is low. However, the weather forecast justifies it. Light snow and freezing temps could lead to slippery footing. Missouri's rankings -- 11th offense, six defense -- further offers confidence with an Under. As potent as the Razorbacks are, they lean toward the ground. They do not score as much as their yardage hints at, so a moderate points total between the two is foreseeable.

We might never again see a spread this humongous in the series. Nor might we ever see one team this much superior to the other. Ohio State shrugged off the loss of its third O-lineman last week and pounded Indiana, which speaks to the Buckeyes' depth. The Wolverines not only lack depth but the usual batch elite starters. Two of them appear out here: future NFL CB Will Johnson for sure, primary WR Colston Loveland most likely. If coach Ryan Day can pour it on, suffice to say he will. The Buckeyes are not shy about scoring late in wrapped-up games, and Michigan has bedeviled him so much that a chance to run up the score will not be ignored.