R.J.'s Picks (7 Live)
The Cowboys suffered a tough loss Monday after botching the recovery of a blocked punt ...
The Chargers fell short after an impressive second-half rally against the Chiefs ...
R.J.'s Past Picks
The Cowboys have one of the best weapons in football, and I'm not talking about CeeDee Lamb. Aubrey is 20 of 21 from 50-plus yards in his two seasons with Dallas, and he has a 65-yarder on his ledger this year. He's attempted less than two FGs only once this season as Mike McCarthy has full confidence in his kicker. Only five of the 12 kickers to face Cincy have attempted less than two FGs, and four of those teams scored three-plus TDs. Both the Cowboys offense and Bengals defense are awful in the red zone, but even if Dallas wins that matchup I like Aubrey to hit this Over.
There's expected to be a lot of offense in this game, and I believe the best way to attack it is with the Cowboys team total Over. The only two times Bengals opponents haven't scored 24 points since Week 1 came against inept Giants and Browns offenses in consecutive weeks. The Cowboys haven't been that bad with Cooper Rush, though recent point totals have been inflated due to DST touchdowns. That said, Rush also had three drives of 50-plus yards against Houston that ended in no points, so this looks like a unit with a 20-point baseline facing one of the league's worst defenses, which should help Dallas get to at least 24 even if the defense or special teams doesn't score.
The Chiefs have been barely scraping by against bottom-of-the-barrel teams, and their biggest problems have been LT Wanya Morris and CB Nazeeh Johnson. The former may not be an issue any longer as DJ Humphries should be ready to make his Chiefs debut, and that should allow the Chiefs to operate more like a high-level offense that the Chargers struggled against when they played Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Chargers didn't impress in their win over the Falcons, which came down largely to Kirk Cousins mistakes, with the O-line strangely having issues against Atlanta's toothless pass rush. I think the -4.5 lookahead was a more accurate spread here.
Matthew Stafford is playing through an ankle injury and up against one of the better pass defenses in the league that has tightened the screws in recent weeks, only letting one QB top 231 passing yards since Week 6. That's despite every one of those passers playing from behind against the Bills. While Stafford has two big-name weapons at receiver, neither has been dynamic since returning from injury and the Bills have great talent at cornerback to handle them. I think the Rams' gameplan needs to focus on running the ball today, and it's going to be hard for Stafford to get to this number for the first time in three games.
The Bills are rolling right now, winning three straight by double digits including beating the rival Chiefs. The Rams have been less impressive of late, even in wins over the Patriots and Saints. Matthew Stafford playing through an ankle injury and the Rams receivers are up against one of the league's best secondaries, so the Rams will have to run the ball better than they have this year to put up points. And even if that happens, the Bills could still score 30 for a seventh straight game and cover anyway. I think -4.5 was the right line so I'm buying the Bills after the drop in the market.
These two teams played two weeks ago in a tough, defensive game, with the Seahawks defense allowing just 131 yards through Arizona's first eight drives before the Cardinals moved the ball a bit in the fourth quarter. The Cardinals again had troubles reaching the end zone last week, scoring one touchdown and five FGs in a close loss, while the Seahawks won a sloppy road game against the Jets. Right now it looks like Seattle is the better team and already proved a tough matchup, so I love catching the full field goal on this line.
This should be a game with a lot of passing, and Mac Jones showed good rapport with Parker Washington when forced into action last week. Washington racked up 103 yards on six receptions, but the 12 targets in that game are the key to hitting this modest Over. The Titans have been an awful pass defense since losing multiple corners to injury, and Washington should have some spots where he's open. Since he already has Jones' eye based on last week, he has a great chance of flying over this number, so it may be worth laddering this one up to 60 or 80 yards as well.
The Titans are a tough team to trust as favorites, but I'm willing to do so if I only have to lay a field goal and they're up against one of the league's worst teams that should be checked out with Trevor Lawrence done for the year. Will Levis is easier to trust against a defense that has managed just five interceptions all year. The Titans may actually be a better team than the market realizes, as they've been on the road for five of their last seven games and faced six likely playoff teams in that stretch, a schedule with which many teams would struggle.