Yeah the Rockies just swept the Rangers, which no one saw coming ... But it came at Coors Field, where the Rox are bad, but just not historically awful. However, COL is somehow 3-16 on the road and 10 of those losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Friars are basically .500 home or road, and are 7-3 in their last 10 to pull into second in the AL West. Dakota Hudson is 0-5 for COL with a 6.35 ERA (though he has been better on road) and COL has lost 5 of his 7 starts by 2 runs or more. The key bats in the Padres lineup all have favorable splits against Hudson

Luka still looks slowed, but the Mavs have cranked up the defensive intensity and seem better primed to win lower-scoring games. Playoff series tend to be a grind, and winning ugly is key. DAL is dominating offensive boards (5% higher in OReb%), and taking away one of OKC super powers. Thunder led NBA in drives/G, points off drives (36.5) and 2nd in drive FG% (53.6%) in reg season. In this series those numbers drop to 30 drive PPG, and 41.8% drive FG%. Forcing OKC to try to make up for that scoring loss from range, where they are hit or miss. Holmgren can get tossed around by Dallas bigs and even with SGA going off, OKC scoring is too streaky from the supporting cast.

Mitch Keller went 9 innings last time out and threw a season-high 109 pitches. But he has been suspect for most of the season and last time he faced the Brew Crew he gave up 6 hits and 4 ER in 5 IP. In fact he's allowed at least 4 ER in half of his 8 starts. He's also allowed a homer in 5 straight starts. MIL held the Pirates to 10 runs in their previous 4-game series. The Brewers are 6-1 when Colin Rea pitches and like Bryse Wilson he keeps outperforming what many expected of him this season. MIL beats up on the lesser teams - 13-4 vs sub .500 clubs like the Pirates.