Duke's offense is on an absolute war path right now and its contributed to each of the last six games going over the total. And while North Carolina's three-point shooting seems to be at an unsustainable clip during this six-game winning streak, the expectation is shots will continue to fall in the comfy confines of the Dean E. Smith Center. The total has gone over in each of the last seven games for the Tar Heels, so it would be significant regression across the board to see a lower-scoring battle in this rivalry game.

The key to Missouri’s success at home, where they are 7-1 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in SEC play, comes on the defensive end. The home-road splits for defensive efficiency are stark, and point to the boost the Tigers get when playing in front of their home crowd. Kentucky has also struggled in true road spots, going 2-7 against the spread, and while the Wildcats’ lineup is getting healthy at the right time I see a bounce back spot for Mizzou after a disappointing performance at Oklahoma on Wednesday night.

Illinois rates out top-35 nationally in defensive efficiency but in a small sample size of recent conference play this is a group that has not met in its own standard defensively in the last month. Purdue has gotten absolutely carved up on the interior of their defense as well and I don’t see any answers prior to Friday night’s regular season finale, especially with all the mismatches that Illinois will try to exploit with their size and skill. The Boilermakers should be able to do their part, too, especially after putting up 100 points on Rutgers earlier in the week. It's a high total for a reason and a game that could easily be decided in the 80s.

The key to Michigan State's late season form has been its defense, which has excelled in slowing down some of the best offenses in the Big Ten during this five-game winning streak. It's also contributed to noticeably lower totals overall. Michigan State games went over 150 in nine of the Spartans first 19 games, but that feat has only been accomplished once in the last 10 games. That's part of the reason the under is 6-12 in Michigan State's conference games and why even Iowa's defensive shortcomings might keep this total from going over.

This has been a really tough stretch of the schedule for Alabama, both in terms of the quality of opponents but also the gut-punch loss to Tennessee over the weekend. With Auburn on deck this weekend and a (hopefully) long postseason run, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see a letdown even in a home finale. Florida, meanwhile, just got its groove back with a thrashing of Texas A&M and is currently carrying a 10-4 record against the spread in road games. The Gators have real upset potential, and definitely deserve a bite as an underdog of more than a possession.

Maryland has been a strong defensive team in conference play and I think that's what shows up again here in a tough road spot at Michigan. The Terps clearly have the size to deal with Dusty May's twin towers but it's going to be the play of Maryland's perimeter defense that can really disrupt this game for the home team. Michigan is also just 6-9 as a home favorite this season, and its recent run of close games was snapped with a blowout loss to Illinois.

Iowa State is now 19-1 when it has the full eight-man rotation is available and 3-6 when even one player from that group is out. Saturday's 13-point win against Arizona was the first time in a while that the Cyclones were full strength and their caliber showed against a Wildcats team that's currently tied for second in the Big 12 standings. BYU's home-road splits away from Provo are already worth a downgrade, and with Iowa State getting back into a groove at the right time I think the spot sets up well for a strong showing for the home team in Hilton Coliseum.

This late season slide for Texas has made the NCAA Tournament look like a long shot along with the odds that the program avoids a coaching change this offseason. Starkville is not a spot where I expect the Longhorns to be able to circle the wagons after losing six of their last seven, even with some of the high-scoring performances from Tre Johnson in recent weeks. Texas is just 2-6 on the road in SEC play this season, with the only victories coming at Oklahoma (14th in SEC) and LSU (15th in the SEC).

Mackey Home Overs have been a bit of a principle play this season. The over has gone 11-4 overall in Purdue home games and it's 8-1 in conference play after Friday night's win against UCLA. The Boilermakers play with a little bit more pace at home and shoot the ball better, letting matchups like this one against Rutgers have the potential to turn into a real track meet. Also, the Scarlet Knights are 10-4 to the over in road games and each of their last three games have gone over 160.

The first meeting was lower scoring at 63-56 but I think we're dealing with a much different game than where each team was on Jan. 25. Wake Forest is 5-5 over its last 10 after starting 15-4 while Duke remains one of the very best teams in the country. The loss of Tyrese Proctor and another setback for Maliq Brown on the injury front have changed Duke's dynamic defensively, and that's where Wake could fill up the score sheet as they chase a lead throughout the second half.

The Duke war machine is full effect offensively and hasn't really shown a let-up factor at all, even against lesser competition. The Blue Devils have scored 80+ points in six of their last eight games, and when an opponent wants to play up-tempo Duke will gladly engage and could flirt with 100 points. Florida State has the fastest tempo in ACC play, and with the absence of two key Duke defenders due to injury (Tyrese Proctor and Maliq Brown) the Seminoles should be able to do their part to take this total over.

Cincinnati has not been a great shooting team, especially in conference play, and now they face a defense that's entire operation is built around forcing teams into bad shots. These are two of the four slowest teams in terms of tempo in Big 12 play, so I'm expecting limited possessions and many empty possessions from Cincinnati with one shot and no rebound. If Houston just held Texas Tech to 61 on the road, I trust the Coogs to keep a less-potent Cincinnati team to 55 or less at home.

Tennessee swept the regular season series last year, but the Vols were sped up by Alabama in excess of their average tempo in both games, which finished with 162 and 155 points. Now Alabama's recent form has been even more high-scoring, in part because of a defense that's giving up a ton of points as well. The point totals from Alabama's last eight games have been 184, 179, 208, 179, 183, 166, 179 and 172. Tennessee has one of the best defenses in the country, but if Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier are scoring at the clip they have been recently there will be enough possessions to take this over the total.

The Trojans have been engaging in some high-scoring affairs recently as the defense has been extremely vulnerable while offensively USC has remained productive in part because of the late-season emergence of freshman guard Wesley Yates (22.3 points per game across the last four games). The over is 12-3 when USC is an underdog, and 8-1-1 when the Trojans are on the road. Combine that with an Oregon team that's riding a four-game winning streak and has had a week to get rested and healthy, and there's another over in the works on Saturday in Eugene.

UConn has had no consistency throughout the regular season, in part because they have dealt with injuries throughout the rotation that have prevented the group from getting into any kind of rhythm. So while the trends suggest there is no reason to trust UConn to cover a multi-possession spread on the road, I think we’ve got a buy-low spot for a Huskies squad that’s getting healthier and could be poised to play its best basketball in March. With the way UConn can exploit a Providence defense that’s been diced up recently in conference play, I’ll lay the points with Dan Hurley’s group.