This spread might look big, and there's some risk taking a double digit number in the post season, but the analytically correct play is to lay the number here. This is the 5 v 12 matchup which means Little Rock was the worst team in the Sun Belt this year while South Alabama only just missed a first round bye. USA took care of business in their lone meeting with Little Rock this season, winning by a 31 point margin and should be able to get past 12 points this afternoon. The Trojans allow the third highest effective FG% in all of D1, I think a blow out is in store. Lay it.