Steelers vs. Vikings Thursday NFL injury report, spread, odds: TJ Watt can break Pittsburgh sack record; Adam Thielen out, Dalvin Cook likely to play

The Minnesota Vikings' playoff hopes are dire at the moment and would be essentially over if they lost at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night as 3-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook. The Vikings will not have Pro Bowl receiver Adam Thielen or left tackle Christian Darrisaw but in a minor surprise likely will have Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's TJ Watt can break the Steelers' single-season sacks record while inching closer to the NFL single-season mark, and SportsLine offers odds on the latter. Click here for model picks. 

On the spread, about 60 percent of bets and 75 percent of money is on Pittsburgh. On the total of 43.5, 54 percent of bets are on Over but 77 percent of money on Under.

Let's start with Watt, who had a career-high 3.5 sacks in Sunday's win over Baltimore – a game it looked like Watt might miss in the COVID protocols. Watt leads the league with 16 sacks and has joined the great Reggie White as the only players with at least 13 sacks in four consecutive seasons since 1982, when the individual sack became an official statistic. He and brother JJ Watt (2014-15) are the only players in history to total at least 15 sacks in consecutive seasons.

Watt and James Harrison (2008) are tied for the most single-season sacks in Steelers history. The NFL single-season mark is 22.5 by the New York Giants' Michael Strahan (2001), and SportsLine oddsmakers list Watt at +200 to break that record – the added 17th game helps, but Watt also has missed two – with no at -300. He is averaging 1.6 sacks per game this season, which would be the second-most behind White in 1987.

Watt is the only player in the league with at least three sacks in multiple games this season as he also had three in Week 9 vs. Chicago. If he gets at least three vs. Minnesota, he will be a clear favorite to catch Strahan. The Vikings have protected Kirk Cousins very well as he has been sacked only 18 times. Pittsburgh's big defensive injury is three-time Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden, who will miss a fourth straight game.

At 5-7, the Vikings are currently ninth in the NFC and are +250 to make the playoffs and -360 to miss. If they do miss again, Coach Mike Zimmer is a goner, guaranteed.

Thielen injured his ankle in Sunday's crushing last-second loss to the previously unbeaten Lions and probably misses multiple weeks. Thielen has 64 catches for 686 yards and 10 scores. KJ Osborn should get a major Fantasy boost with Thielen out and the Steelers surely doubling Justin Jefferson. Cousins is 5-1 in his career with Thielen inactive and has 11 TDs and one pick in those six games.

Cook was expected to miss at least two games with a shoulder injury and didn't play vs. Detroit but got in two limited practices this week and is questionable -- but considered likely to go barring a setback.

Defensively, Minnesota gets back three key guys who didn't play last week in linebackers Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks and cornerback Patrick Peterson. Fellow corners Bashaud Breeland (groin) and Mackensie Alexander (ribs) are expected to play.

The Vikings are 1-9 ATS in their past 10 as favorites. The Steelers are 0-3 ATS this year vs. teams currently below .500.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Will TJ Watt break the NFL single-season sacks record (22.5)?

• No -300
• Yes +200

Who wins every NFL game? And which teams will sink your bankroll? Join SportsLine now to get NFL picks every week, all from the model that simulates every game 10,000 times and is up almost $8,000.