SportsLine NFL simulations: Colts a 9-win team in 2020 with addition of Philip Rivers

It always made the most sense for former long-time Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers to sign with the Indianapolis Colts in free agency because Indy head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni both worked previously with the Chargers so they were familiar with Rivers and vice-versa. When free-agent signings can be made official on Wednesday, Rivers will sign with the Colts.

Via the SportsLine Projection Model, the Colts have improved as much as nearly any team so far in free agency. They jumped from a projected 8.3 wins in 2020 to 8.7 with the Monday trade of a 2020 first-round pick (No. 13 overall) to San Francisco for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.

In the past four seasons, Buckner played the third-most snaps among defensive lineman in the NFL and had 28.5 regular-season sacks. The Colts signed Buckner to a huge extension as well.

By adding the 38-year-old Rivers as an upgrade to Jacoby Brissett (who now again becomes of the NFL's better backup QBs) the Model forecasts Indianapolis to jump from those 8.7 victories to 9.1 and now with a 55.4 percent chance of reaching the playoffs.

Rivers threw for 4,615 yards last year and 23 touchdowns but also had 20 interceptions and five lost fumbles However, he will go from playing behind one of the NFL's shakier offensive lines with Los Angeles to one of its best in Indianapolis.

On the William Hill NFL futures odds, the Colts are +1200 to win the AFC title and +2500 to win the Super Bowl on Feb. 7, 2021, in Tampa. They are given a current Over-Under win total of 8, with the Over a slight -125 favorite (bet $125 to win $100).

Indy is a +180 second-favorite to win the AFC South behind Tennessee (+170). The Colts finished third in the division last year at 7-9.