Pivotal season upcoming in career of New England Patriots running back Sony Michel?

Tuesday had to be a rough day for New England Patriots fans as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers unveiled the first photos of Tom Brady in his new team's uniforms. It's definitely a new era for the Patriots as they will not have Brady as their starting quarterback for the first time since very early in the 2001 season (not counting his Deflategate suspension). CBS Sports' Tyler Sullivan this week looked at one key young player still on a rookie contract for each team in the AFC East, and he focused on third-year running back Sony Michel for the Patriots. 

Michel was the No. 31 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft out of Georgia, where he shared a backfield with Nick Chubb – who went No. 35 overall that year to Cleveland and has been the much better NFL player, nearly winning the league rushing title in 2019. Michel had a very solid '18 rookie season in rushing for 931 yards and six scores on 209 carries, and he was spectacular in those playoffs as the Pats won their final Super Bowl under Brady.

In the Divisional Round against the Chargers, Michel rushed for 129 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. In the AFC title overtime win in Kansas City, he put up 113 yards and two scores on 29 carries. Then in the ugly 13-3 win over the Rams in the Super Bowl, Michel had 94 yards rushing and a TD on 18 carries.

Thus, a lot was expected from him entering 2019, but Michel regressed some – to be fair, the entire New England offense struggled in many games. His yards per carry dropped from 4.5 as a rookie to 3.7 as a sophomore, and he still wasn't much of a factor in the passing game with just 12 catches.

The third year is a huge one for all NFL first-round rookies under the current CBA because after that season they are eligible for an extension or to have their fifth-year rookie option picked up at a big number. Probably not ideal for Michel that he had foot surgery in May and could open camp on the PUP list. Keep in mind that the Patriots selected Alabama running back Damien Harris in Round 3 of the 2019 draft, so he could already be in line to steal carries. Bill Belichick surely would like to run the ball as much as possible with either Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer under center. 

William Hill sportsbook still lists the Patriots as +120 slight favorites on the moneyline odds to win the AFC East again, although it's quite possible that Buffalo (+130) is favored by Week 1 for the division. No individual props out yet, but Michel likely will be given Over-Under season totals of 925 yards and 7.5 touchdowns or so. He will be a longer shot in the +4000 range to lead the NFL in rushing. 

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