Green Bay Packers betting odds, Week 1 Vegas spread and Aaron Rodgers NFL MVP chances

The Green Bay Packers won the NFC North last year and tied for the most regular-season victories in the conference with 13, but they might have been more fortunate than good with an unsustainable 8-1 record in one-score games. Sunday's opener at division-rival Minnesota, the North favorite for 2020, also figures to be close with the Vikings as 2.5-point favorites on the NFL odds. 

Green Bay remains one of the NFL's most popular teams, so it's no surprise they have the maximum of five prime-time games with the possibility of 1-2 more flexed to Sunday night at some point. Getting to Week 10 with a reasonable record will put the Packers in good position to repeat as NFC North champions because their first nine games are much more challenging than their final seven.

The toughest overall stretch looks to be out of the too-early Week 5 bye, Green Bay's first that week since 2009, when the Packers visit the Bucs and Texans, host the Vikings and travel to the 49ers. The good news is the final four games of the season feature just one 2019 playoff team. Green Bay will only play once on the road in back-to-back weeks. In 2019, the Pack had consecutive road trips three times in the final nine weeks.     

There's little argument Aaron Rodgers is an all-time great and in fact has the best passer efficiency rating in NFL history at 102.4, just ahead of Seattle's Russell Wilson (101.2) and miles better than Brett Favre's mark of 86.0.

But Rodgers has reached just one Super Bowl, and that was a decade ago. Rodgers & Co. were dusted by the San Francisco 49ers in last season's NFC championship, 37-20, as Rodgers fell to 1-3 in NFC title games. Green Bay didn't help Rodgers in the first round of the 2020 draft, either, shockingly selecting Utah State quarterback Jordan Love over a much-needed receiver.

Rodgers is 98-81-1 (55 percent) against the spread in his regular-season career, with Green Bay on average a 4.2-point favorite. The Over-Under is 91-86-3 in those games with an average total of 46.8. 

The Packers have been home dogs just six times since he took over as the starter in 2008 (last in 2018 vs. Vikings, which ended in a 29-29 tie) and they are 4-1-1 ATS. As an away dog since '08, Green Bay is 20-25 ATS in games Rodgers played with an average spread of +4.1 Also in Rodgers' career, the Packers are 14-0 ATS when Rodgers had negative rushing yardage and did not fumble.

The Packers are 42-24-2 (64 percent) ATS as home favorites since 2011. Green Bay has been a good team overall to back in September since 2015. The Packers' ATS cover percentage of .611 in that span is third-best in the NFL. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS BETTING PROFILE

2019 record: 13-3 (first, NFC North)

2019 against the spread: 10-6

2019 ATS margin: +0.2

2019 Over-Under: 6-10

2020 strength of schedule: 15th-toughest; Packers' opponents combined for a .504 winning percentage last year (128-126-2).

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WILLIAM HILL 2020 GREEN BAY PACKERS FUTURES ODDS

Win total: 9 (under -120)

To make playoffs: Yes -140, no +120

Division: +170 to win NFC North

Conference: +900 win NFC

Super Bowl 55: +1800 to win fifth Super Bowl

NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers +2500, Aaron Jones +15000, Davante Adams +20000

Defensive Player of the Year: Preston Smith +3300, Za'Darius Smith +50000

Offensive Rookie of the Year: AJ Dillon +5000, Jordan Love +8000

Coach of the Year: Matt LaFleur +3000

SportsLine Model's projection: 8.2 wins (Pick is Under)

GREEN BAY PACKERS GAME-BY-GAME BETTING TRENDS

Week 1 at Minnesota, 1 PM ET: Green Bay snapped a three-game SU & ATS skid at the Vikings in a 23-10 December victory to clinch the NFC North.  

Week 2 vs. Detroit, 1 PM ET: Green Bay has failed to cover the past three at home vs. the Lions.The Over is 7-0-1 in Green Bay's past eight after hosting the Vikings.

Week 3 at New Orleans, 8:20: PM ET: The Packers are 0-3 SU & ATS in their last three visits to New Orleans. 

Week 4 vs. Atlanta, 8:15 PM ET (Monday): GB has covered one of its past eight at home vs. the Falcons but it came in the most recent meeting (34-20 in 2018).

Week 5: BYE. Way too early for a bye week from a players' perspective.

Week 6 at Tampa Bay, 4:25 PM ET:  Green Bay has just one SU win (2016) and one cover (2018) in its past five following a bye.

Week 7 at Houston, 1 PM ET: The Packers have won and covered their lone two trips to Houston.

Week 8 vs. Minnesota, 1 PM ET: The Pack are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 at home vs. the Vikes after a 21-16 win last year.

Week 9 at San Francisco, 8:20 PM ET (Thursday): Including playoffs, the Packers are 1-4 SU & ATS in their past five at the Niners, including two losses last season by a combined 74-28.

Week 10 vs. Jacksonville, 1 PM ET: Green Bay is likely to be a double-digit favorite but is 1-5 ATS in its past six at home as a double-digit fave.

Week 11 at Indianapolis, 1 PM ET: Green Bay has split its past 10 road games vs. AFC foes, both SU & ATS (1-1 last year).

Week 12 vs. Chicago, 8:20 PM ET: The Packers are 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS in their past 10 as at least 3.5-point home favorites in this series.

Week 13 vs. Philadelphia, 4:25 PM ET: If recent history is any indication, Green Bay will cover as the Packers are 6-0 ATS in their past six the week after hosting the Bears.

Week 14 at Detroit, 1 PM ET: The Packers have failed to cover their past three in Motown but did get a controversial 23-20 win last year.

Week 15 vs. Carolina, TBD ET (Saturday or Sunday): With a goal-line stand, Packers beat the visiting Panthers 24-16 last year to cover the 5-point spread.  

Week 16 vs. Tennessee, 8:20 PM ET: The Over has cashed in five of the past six meetings, with the Titans scoring 47 in the last one (2016).

Week 17 at Chicago, 1 PM ET: GB is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its past nine regular-season trips to Soldier Field.

Some trends contributed by SDQL Gurus 

EXPERT PICK FROM SUPERCONTEST GURU R.J. WHITE (36-6 ATS alltime on Packers games): Under 9 wins (-110)

I didn't like much of what the Packers have done to improve their 2020 outlook this offseason. They invested in the run game in the draft, but who is Aaron Rodgers going to throw to when he needs to pull out a win? With their 13-3 record not supported by the underlying stats, which had them as a 10-win team, they'll have to be just as good this year if they don't catch as many breaks. Even if you hand them wins against the Lions twice plus the Jaguars, Panthers and Falcons at home, they'll need to go 5-6 in the rest of their games to hit the Over and their road schedule makes that unlikely to me.

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