2023 NFL Draft prop line movement: Momentum building for surprise pick at No. 2, plus more odds-related news

I've spent much of the past week patting myself on the back for predicting last week that the Texans would pass on a quarterback at No. 2 and select Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson. But the latest shift in the NFL Draft props betting market indicates that it might be another non-quarterback elbowing his way into the No. 2 mix.

We'll have more on that development below, along with everything else you need to know about how the NFL Draft props market looks on Friday.

Last year, I delivered a top-five mock draft (out of 32 experts, including the biggest names in NFL Draft media) in part by focusing on what the betting-market trends were saying. This year, I'm going to provide you regular updates on what's happening in one betting market so you can be ahead of the curve as well. I'm focusing on the FanDuel lines, as those are the easiest for me to pull data from regularly for my draft workbook.

Tyree Wilson to Texans gaining steam

With it becoming more and more clear the Texans will likely pass on Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud at No. 2 if the Panthers select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young at No. 1 as expected, this should be the time the market solidifies around Will Anderson to go No. 2. But that's not what's happening; instead, Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson has made a surge in the No. 2 overall market over the last few days with buzz building that his upside as an edge disrupter may put him atop the Texans' board for defensive players.

On Monday, Wilson was +950 to be taken No. 2, which was actually higher than his odds to be the pick last Friday despite Stroud dropping from -105 to +150 over the weekend. But this has been Wilson's week for that No. 2 spot, ascending to +400 to be the pick by Wednesday and now sitting just behind Anderson at +240, with the Alabama defensive end at +230. If there's any more smoke over the weekend, we could see Wilson quickly become the favorite for the No. 2 spot.

The odds for first defender drafted have seen a similar move, with Anderson dropping from -400 on Monday to -250 on Wednesday to -125 on Friday, and Wilson going from +650 to +300 to +100 during those same intervals.  

Now, Wilson going No. 2 would be contingent on the Texans not being able to find a trade partner for the pick, as they'd likely prefer moving down later in the top 10 and collecting premium draft capital. The trade-up team would presumably be doing so for Stroud, so whether he makes for a smart play at +320 to go No. 2 depends on whether you think the Texans have better than a 24% chance to trade the pick, which are roughly the implied odds on a +320 play.

Surprisingly, the growing buzz around Wilson going No. 2 hasn't led to Anderson being pegged as more likely to go No. 3 to Arizona. Instead, Stroud is now the sole favorite to go No. 3 at +250, with Anderson and Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson down to +300 after being tied with Stroud for the third pick on Wednesday.

Pencil in Will Levis at No. 4?

The odds for Levis, the Kentucky quarterback prospect, to go No. 4 overall have been on a roller coaster this week. After going from +200 to +100 over last weekend, he was up to +150 on Wednesday as Stroud moved from +700 to +250 to be the fourth pick. But while Stroud's odds have remained stable, Levis is now the odds-on favorite to be taken fourth, up to -125 on FanDuel.

The Team to draft Will Levis market has seen a similar fluctuation, with the Colts going from +100 on Monday to +140 on Wednesday to -110 as of Friday afternoon. While the difference between the two props allows for a little extra profit potential for those looking to play the Levis-Colts connection, +100 for both props is still available at some sportsbooks as well.

New possibility enters fray for Bears

NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah answered a bevy of questions from media around the nation yesterday, and his comments about the Bears have resulted in a big swing in the market for the No. 9 overall pick. Tennessee tackle Darnell Wright was called out by name as being a particular fit for Chicago despite not typically being projected as a top-10 pick.

That shoutout has Wright as the co-favorite to go No. 9 overall with Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter at +300, moving Wright ahead of Northwestern's Peter Skoronski (+350), Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr. (+450) and Georgia's Broderick Jones (+1400) in that market. 

Despite that move, Wright is still just +600 to be the first offensive lineman taken at FanDuel. That could be because Johnson has moved from a -110 favorite all the way to -175. Combine that movement with Wright's major shift to go No. 9, and either momentum is building for Johnson to be off the board in the first eight picks or there's opportunity for bettors to take advantage of inefficiency if they can nail down which prop represents the most likely scenario for Chicago.

More NFL Draft line movement news

• No. 8 overall pick: Georgia edge rusher Nolan Smith is now the sole favorite to go No. 8 at +250 over Texas running back Bijan Robinson at +300. Even if the Falcons surprise by trading up for a quarterback, this is still a solid range for Smith to come through as the No. 8 overall pick.
• First TE drafted: We talked Wednesday about how Notre Dame's Michael Mayer had leapfrogged Utah's Dalton Kincaid in the market to be the first tight end drafted, and his lead has only grown stronger. Mayer sits at -175 as of Friday afternoon to Kincaid's +130.
• Team to draft Quentin Johnston: The Vikings and Ravens had been the two clear favorites to take the TCU receiver over the past week, with Minnesota sitting in the +450 to +500 range while Baltimore was anywhere from +500 to +650. But now it's anyone's guess where Johnston goes, with the Vikings leading at +900 but the Ravens, Giants, Bills, Chiefs, Rams, Cardinals and Texans all right behind at +1000 to +1200.
• Position of first Bills pick: Speaking of the Bills, we finally may be getting some clarity on the direction of their first round pick, where wide receiver was favored a week ago before linebacker sat as the favorite most of this week. However, defensive lineman has jumped from +380 and fourth position on Wednesday to +150 and the clear favorite on Friday. Defensive tackle is a clear long-term need while edge rush depth is also on the table for the pick.
• To be a first round pick: FanDuel has posted odds on several players considered to be in the late first-round/early second-round mix to go on Thursday. Here are the prospects with minus odds to land in Round 1, per FanDuel: Iowa State edge rusher Will McDonald (-250), Mississippi State cornerback Emmanuel Forbes (-230), Pittsburgh defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (-220), Florida guard O'Cyrus Torrence (-180), Clemson defensive tackle Bryan Bresee (-180) and Wisconsin center Joe Tippman (-125). Notable odds outside that group include Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker at +100, Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs at +230, and Georgia Tech defensive end and NFL Draft invitee Keion White at +105.

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