Royals vs. Rays Thursday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Behind AL Cy Young favorite Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay favored by biggest margin in team history

The mismatch of the 2023 Major League Baseball season has arrived as the MLB-best Tampa Bay Rays and AL Cy Young betting favorite Shane McClanahan host the dismal Kansas City Royals on Thursday. We knew the Rays would be monster favorites, but they are a whopping -420 at FanDuel, the biggest number of any team this season and in Rays franchise history. That is the longest price I can find; many other books currently have it down around -380.

Tampa Bay has been at least a -300 favorite 12 times on record and is 8-4 in those games. That includes a 2-0 mark this year, a pair of 11-0 home wins over Oakland on April 8 and 9. The most the Rays have been favored by on record is -335 at home vs. Baltimore on Aug. 19, 2021 (but, again, all books have different numbers). The Rays won 7-2.

The biggest MLB favorite this season was Texas at -375 against Oakland on April 23, which the Rangers won 5-2 at home – thanks to BetMGM's John Ewing for that statistic.

The A's do have a worse record and run differential than the Royals this year, but Oakland at least had a seven-game winning streak at one point and is generally competitive some nights. The Royals, who have one more win than the A's, usually aren't. In fact, Kansas City is 5-20 when scoring in the first inning with 10 consecutive losses. That's really hard to do. The Royals' 27 blown lead losses are about three-fourths of the way to matching their 36 from last season.

We rather doubt the Royals score a first-inning run tonight and are +280 to do so at DraftKings, with No at -425. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.12 ERA, 97 strikeouts and 1.10 WHIP in his 15 starts and the +225 leader to win the AL Cy Young at DK – the lefty finished sixth in the voting last year. If you wanted to nitpick a little this year, McClanahan has allowed a home run in a career-high-tying four straight starts.

He has made two career starts against Kansas City, going 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 12 innings. McClanahan is set at over/under 1.5 earned runs tonight and is -130 to personally get a win – those are about the longest odds I have seen a pitcher have this year.

Kansas City blew another early lead in Wednesday's 9-4 loss in Detroit as it looked for only a sixth two-game winning streak this season. The Royals are the only team yet to win three in a row.

It looks to be a bullpen game for the Royals on Thursday with Jose Cuas (3-0, 4.15 ERA) likely serving as the opener. He has never started a big-league game. A total of 11 of his last 13 appearances have been scoreless (11.2 IP). Cuas pitched a scoreless inning on Monday in Detroit, so his limit is likely two tonight. Cuas did face the Rays as a rookie in 2022 and allowed a run and two hits over 1.1 innings. 

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